Ray Malone's Commentary

We are in the midst of a major realignment of the political parties. For nearly all of the 20th Century both parties had Liberals and both parties had Conservatives. Republican Presidents included Teddy Roosevelt the Liberal and William Taft the Conservative early in this century. Democrats had a Liberal FDR as President and a Conservative Senate whose powerful committee chairmanships were held by Conservative Southern Democrats. FDR was considered a master at getting conservative democrats to vote his way. But in many instances it took 5, 6, and even 7 years to get it done. It is not easy for either party.

Forty years ago the South was the Solid Democratic South and New England was pretty much Republican territory. The Southern Democrats were mostly Conservative and the New England Republicans were pretty Liberal. Does the term Rockefeller Republican ring a bell?

From the start of the last century to nearly the end both parties had Liberals and Conservative Senators. They often often crossed party lines. The 1964 civil rights act would never have passed with out Republican support.

Today the crossing is only going one direction. There are no conservatives left in the Democratic Party. Zell Miller was the last of his kind. So there is no longer any crossing from left to right. But there are still Liberal Republicans in the Senate and they will cross party lines. There are Liberal Democrats from Conservative States. Some of them might give in.. but only if their political future was at stake. We are not in that position.

To expect Frist, Bush or any Republican leader to be able to easily gain Liberal Republican support for a conservative agenda is as realistic as Democrats expecting Daschle to hold Zell Miller in the Democrat camp when Daschle was Majority leader of the Senate.

But kicking out the Liberal Republicans would be a disaster. Think of where we would be if Reid were Majority leader. FDR in the 1930s learned to buy a few Conservative Democrats to get his Liberal agenda passed. Had FDR tried to destroy the Conservative Democrats rather than work with them.. there would have been no New Deal.

The first rule of politics and sports are the same. A coach has to play the game with the players he has. A coach and majority leader both have to find a way to win. They have to find a way to win with the players and opposition as it exists. It is always better to have a Liberal Republican in the Senate than it is to have a liberal Democrat in his place.

Republicans must come to understand that the realignment is not complete. There are at least 6 liberal Republicans in the senate. Frist needs at least one of them to pull the nuclear option. Frist must have 50 votes or the Nuclear Option will fail. He has a certain 48 or 49. Some Conservatives are screaming for Frist to pull the nuclear option as if victory were as simple as making a floor motion. Right now I read the situation as certain defeat for the conservative cause. A 49 to 51 vote on the Nuclear Option means the Democrats win.

What Frist is doing is trying with every means possible to get to 50 votes, so Cheney can break the tie and our side wins. Frist and Cheney are not going to do anything until they are absolutely certain of victory. There is a time to act and a time not to act. I remember many people trashed Ike from 1942 until the summer of 1944 for not invading Europe. Stalin kept demanding that we invade, and a significant number of Americans thought Ike was a lousy commander for not following Stalin's advice. Ike knew that one never attacks unless victory is pretty certain. Ike knew not to attack if defeat is certain. Ike waited until he had the forces needed to win. Bush and Frist are doing the same thing.

Frist is trying very hard to get those 50 votes. It is clear that when Democratic Minority Leader Reid thinks Frist is getting close to a certain 50, he offers a deal designed to take those 50 votes down to 49. It is also clear that Frist can not get to 50 votes by refusing to negotiate with Reid. Remember Frist is trying to get Liberal Republican votes. Frist must prove to the fence sitters that the Democrats are unreasonable .. not him.

Many states that the President won with 10 or more point margins in 2004 have liberal Democratic Senators. That will change with time. It is also obvious that at least 3 states that Bush lost by 10 point margins have Liberal Republican Senators. Those seats will be lost. Within a few years it is very likely that the Republicans will have between 55 and 60 senators with more than 50 solid votes for a conservative agenda. It is also true the Democrats will have 40 to 44 mostly liberal Senators. Republicans are going to gain 5 or 6 seats while losing 5 or 6 seats. But the Senate will become more conservative. Then and only then can the Republicans in the Senate play real hardball.

Republicans have control of the House and can and do play hardball. There is no way with the current make up of the Senate that a majority leader can play hardball and win.

It is quite possible that the Senate will in a few years have 55 to 45 but with the Republicans holding a solid 51 or 52 seats. That is in contrast to the Republicans currently only having 48 to 49 solid seats.

The point to consider is the Democrats must keep Frist from getting to 50 solid votes every day. For if on one day, Frist has them he will pull the nuclear option. Reid has to win the contest everyday or he loses. Frist must win the contest on one day to win. Sometime, in some way ,it is very likely that some situation will develop where a RINO now on the wrong side will want something badly. If will cost him a vote on the Nuclear option to get it.

Remember that threatening Liberal Republicans does not work. It just makes Liberal Republicans into Liberal Democrats. We will not make the Jeffords mistake again. Frist will have to buy support and as Majority leader he has the power to do that.

It is not certain to happen but the odds say Frist is going to win. Remember Frist only has to win one head count. ... Reid has to win every count ...every day.

To the nervous Nellies with one thumb in their mouth and the other up their rump, I have one piece of advice. Exchange thumbs. It will give you a taste of the future if your advice were actually followed.