Ray Malone's Commentary

Sometimes I am surprised by the mistakes politicians make when using focus group and poll data. Take the Obama situation where focus groups and polls showed that many voters did not believe that Obama had enough foreign policy experience to be president. So his handlers sent him off to the Middle East and to Europe to meet with the Iraqis, Afghanistan's leaders, and then on to Europe where he met with the leaders of Germany, France and England.

They were totally surprised to find that after nearly 24/7 positive coverage by an adoring media, Obama's poll numbers had fallen. Obama and McCain are now tied. But the news is worse than that. Only 74 percent of Democrats are in Obama's corner. And McCain has a 9 point lead among independents. McCain has 88 percent support from Republicans. They polled 39 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents to get it to be a tie. In other words 74 percent of Democrats has to be a number equal in size to 88 percent of Republicans plus 9 percent of independents. It is not a good time in Obamaville.

But why didn't the trip work. The focus groups and polls showed that Obama lacked foreign policy experience. He holds summit meetings all over half the world and his poll numbers fell 20 percent. Can you say golly dang it Gee Whiz? What in the cat hair is going on?

Well it is pretty simple, really. Consider this. You are talking to a young person with little or no foreign policy experience. You ask that person 20 foreign policy questions and in every case his ideas and opinions totally agree with yours. Would you say This young person needs more foreign policy experience! Or would you say this young person has a fantastic grasp of foreign affairs!

What if the situation were the other way. You asked the same 20 questions and the young person in every case disagreed with your view of the situation and the actions to be taken. Would you say that the person needed more experience? Or would you say this young person has a great grasp of foreign affairs.

My point is if voters agree with your positions they will not buy the view that you lack experience. But when voters do not then they will readily accept the opinion that the candidate lacks experience.

Then what is the fix? All Obama has to do is tell the NON OBAMA voters what they want to hear. They don't want to hear surrender in Iraq. They don't want to hear Obama say the surge was a failure. They don't want to hear that we should declare defeat and withdraw.

Obama's problem is not an image problem. It is the voters do not agree with his positions on the foreign policy issues.

Let me give you a similar case. In 1992 the economy was the big issue. George H. W. Bush knew the economy was mending so he did nothing about the economy. Focus groups exposed the view that voters thought that Bush did not care about the plight of the average citizen. So his brilliant campaign staff had him look into a camera and say "I CARE!"

What Bush should have done is propose an economic program to fix the economy. It would not matter what that plan was. He should have then told the nation that his new economic plan would work as well as his war plan for getting Saddam out of Kuwait. He then should have reminded voters what the Democrats said about his war plan before we went to war to kick Saddam out of Kuwait. He then should have demanded that congress pass his economic plan. Had he done so, Bush 41 would have defeated Bill Clinton in 1992.

When VOTERS SAY YOU NEED MORE EXPERIENCE OR THAT YOU DON'T CARE the response is to say and do what THE VOTERS want said and done about the Issues.

For Obama that would be telling voters what they want to hear. The problem with that is Obama would have to do a FLIP FLOP on nearly every issue. That could cost him his base.

But all the trips in world and will not fix it. NO POLITICIAN CAN TELL VOTERS WHAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO HEAR AND RETAIN HIGH POLLING NUMBERS. NO MATTER HOW MANY PHOTO OPS THEY HOLD.

Trips to improve the image do nothing. Adoring crowds of Europeans cheering do nothing if Obama's positions and the voters positions are not the same. In fact as we have just seen they are counter productive.

I note that Obama may be getting a clue. He is sort of favoring off shore drilling. The problems are l Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi. Will they bend to Obama's will. But even if the Democrats fold on drilling for oil, it is the Republicans who will get the credit. And Obama will take a hit for having poor judgment

The Democrats keep saying Obama does not need experience he has judgment. The problem is his judgments have been the opposite of most voters judgments.

Poor Obama his expert and flawlessly perfect campaign, according to the media, hasn't a clue.

NEED MORE EXPERIENCE = THEY DON'T AGREE WITH YOU ON THE ISSUES.