Ray Malone's Commentary

The Obama campaign is the most self centered in the history of the Democratic party. Starting with William Jennings Bryan, Democratic presidential candidates have focused on what they will do for the working class citizens of the USA. Democrats were for helping the poor, but they were also about doing things to help the working class. Joe and Jane Sixpack were the center of the Democratic world and what the Democratic candidate would do for Joe and Jane was the center of every Democratic campaign for over 100 years.

For most of the 20th century the working class people in the USA were not well educated. Yes they could read and write and do arithmetic, but they had little practical understanding of our economic system. They were quick to believe that the nation was actually run by a a group of "BIGs".. They included BIG BANKS, BIG MONEY, BIG WALL STREET, BIG BUSINESS, BIG OIL, BIG STEEL, BIG AUTOS, and every other BIG except BIG GOVERNMENT.

It was the Democrats who would take on the BIGs and force them to make the economy better for the "Little People". From minimum wage laws to the EPA it was about Democrat office holders protecting working class people from the BIGs. It was the Democratic party that stood between the BIGs and the ordinary citizen. According to the Democrats it was the Republicans who were the party of the BIGs. White working class voters still buy that line.

For decades, and certainly the 1930s, 1940s and well into the 1980s, this was what nearly all hourly workers believed. Even a percentage of lower level salary workers bought into the existence of the BIGs that Democrats confronted to protect the ordinary citizen from being oppressed.

But Obama is not about doing things for "ordinary" people. He is not about taking on the "BIGS: on behalf of the "LITTLES", Obama is about the LITTLES serving "THE ONE." It is an appeal that is common in much of the world. The paradigm is for ordinary people to offer their undying support to "THE LEADER" and "THE LEADER" may, and I repeat MAY, do good things for them.

It is 180 degrees opposite of the way the Democrats have had success for 80 years. It is not the American way to power. For Democrats it was always, "THIS is what I will do for YOU. I can't do "THIS" for you, with out YOUR support." Democrats pleaded for HELP not POWER. Power was their object, but not their appeal to voters.

But Obama turns that 180 degrees. Obama is saying, "Offer me your support and then I will fix things ... Obama offers CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN." But does not define the Change. He is THE ONE. FIRST VOTERS ARE TO GIVE HIM THEIR SUPPORT. SECONDLY HE WILL DO THINGS TO MAKE THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE. He does not say for whom he will make it better.

As they say down home, Obama has it bass ackwords.

What most working class Democrats have is a huge sign on their chest that says. "MAKE ME FEEL IMPORTANT.... THEN YOU GET MY VOTE. Obama is saying recognize how great I AM and then I will effect something or other called "Change you can believe in".

The other factor is independent voters. Most people understand that independent voters are not driven or persuaded by ideological arguments. They may very well vote for a liberal for congress and a conservative for president... in the same election. It is not about liberal or conservative ideology with independents. They chose a candidate based on one of two factors. The first is likability. The media just assumes that independents would love Obama... They media certainly loves him.

But independents go for the guy they would like to have a beer with at the local hang out.. That is NOT OBAMA. Can you imagine some guys at the plant saying, "Hey we are going to stop off at Joes bar for a cold one after work.. Don't forget to invite Obama!" No! That would not happen. It would far more likely be "Don't tell that pompous S.O.B. Obama where we are going!" But there would not be much danger Obama would even go, even if he was invited. Obama is not the type that would associate with ordinary guys. Ordinary guys and gals are quick to pick that up

So Obama loses the likability contest with the voters he must have. The second criteria is where Obama must win independents. He must do what both Gore and Kerry did to get that half the independent vote. Gore and Kerry both told the independents what they would do for them if elected. Years and years of research shows Independents will not buy platitudes. Thomas Dewey proved that in 1948. What independents buy is what the candidate will do for them.. Not what the candidate will do for society or for the economy or for anyone except the individual independent. Here is a pitch that will work with independents, "If you make between 50 and 150 thousand dollars a year I will cut your income taxes by 10 percent!" That is a pitch that will win independent voters.

That is why Obama is doing so poorly with two categories of voters he must have to win.. They are White Working Class Democrats and Independents.

But this year is proving the experts wrong on many fronts. In both 2000 and 2004 the independents did something they had not done in the past. They made up their minds by the end of July. It was conventional wisdom that in 2008 independents would return to their long standing habit of not choosing a candidate until the last 4 or 5 weeks of the campaign.

When that was true a Democrat or Republican could run to the base for the primary and then run to the center for the fall election. And it worked. But not in 2000, 2004 and not in 2008.McCain started running to the center in 2001. Obama ran to the left through June of 2008. And by then it was too late to run to the center. The independents had mostly chosen a candidate.

And as anyone with experience knows a RINO can beat a far left liberal for Independent support. And a RINO has a chance at DINO support over a far left liberal.

Today the polls show that only 77 percent of Democrats support Obama. They show 91 percent of Republicans support McCain. So how can Obama win the support of 23 percent of Democrats that do not support him. Always in the past Democrats came home on election day to support the Democrat nominee. But in the past that wavering support was the far left unhappy with the moderate Democratic nominee. This year it is the white working class Democrats who are not in Obama's corner. Can Obama change their perception of him?

I looked at the Obama headquarters in my home town. There is a picture of Obama playing "THE ONE "... his head held high in a regal pose. If he is going to change his image, the Obama camp has not started to do it, and there are less than 12 weeks left.

I do know one thing... Changing made up minds is very hard. And less than 3 months may not be enough time for Obama to effectively change, even if he figures out what he is doing wrong.