Ray Malone's Commentary

The most important thing one can learn about the media is they only talk to each other. They only believe each other and like minded politicians. They Washington Press knows nearly everything that is going on in Washington D.C. But as far as telling us what is going on in the nation they are literally clueless.

Hillary Clinton tends to listen to the media elite. The same elite that told her in 1993 that socialized medicine would be popular everywhere except with Republican office holders in Washington D.C. They and she were very wrong then, and they are very wrong now.

Today the media thinks that Hillary is a certainty for the Democratic nomination. That sounds like what the media believed in 1977 and 1978 when they told us Teddy Kennedy was a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination for president. Every media type I talked to back then said Jimmy did not stand a chance in the Democratic primaries against Teddy Kennedy. Teddy had the nomination as sure as evolution created little green apples. Believing in Teddy Kennedy and not believing in GOD never seemed too bright to me as the primary results revealed.

The fact is Jimmy Carter is not the most likeable guy in the USA. But Carter is far more likeable than Teddy Kennedy. You see the media types told each other from the day JFK was killed that Robert and Teddy were from the invincible Kennedy Clan and therefore could not lose. I remember pointing out that LBJ got more votes in New York in 1964 than Robert Kennedy. One could say it to the media types, but that does not mean they heard it. The media likes Teddy Kennedy.. the public does not. The media loves Hillary.. It remains to be seen what the public thinks of her. I don't think the Clinton Clan is invincible.

Hillary believes she has the nomination wrapped up. So does the media. So with the nomination in hand, she is moving to the center, She. knows that the Republican nominee will have to move to the right to win the nomination and then try to move to the center to win the general election. So she plans to be in the center years before the primary season starts. I think that is a huge mistake.

Few now remember but much of the Republican base was unhappy with Ike. They felt he was no more right wing than Harry Truman. And then when the moderate Nixon got beat by Kennedy, the base was unhappy. They saw no reason to nominate another Ike. They wanted a true conservative. In 1964 the Republican base would rather lose with at true conservative than win with what they saw as a RINO.

You can see the mirror image of that situation in the Democratic party today. Talk to the Democratic elites and they will tell you they despise Dean. But talk to the rank and file .. the party faithful .. and they will tell you they have been wanting a person of Deans convictions for decades.

Hillary in 2008 may be in a bad position. She will be espousing popular views of the centrists, just as the Democratic primary voters want to hear it very left, very loud and they want it in "your face" in the style of a true believer. Hillary does not understand where Democratic party rank and file are. There are some party officials who do. The media as usual is clueless.

When a party has lost one or two elections with what the base sees as centrist candidates, and when the last winning candidate got nothing they wanted done, the base gets discouraged. They remember they did not get any liberal legislation passed under Bill Clinton. From their standpoint Clinton was no better than Bush 41. Follow that with two moderates like Gore and Kerry getting whipped by a Bush 43 and you have an angry base. To the Democrat rank and file there could be no more vulnerable Republican candidate than Bush 43 and he beat two moderates. The right may not think of Gore and Kerry as moderates, but the Democratic rank and file certainly do.

Today when you talk to grass roots true believer Democrats, they tell you if they are going to lose anyway, they prefer to lose with a candidate with whom they agree. They will not fall for "Dean can only lose, vote for Kerry who can win." again. They have been there and done that and they are ticked.

Hillary needs to move to her native left. She must make the true believers believe she is one of them. Then she must hope that the Republicans nominate someone who is very nasty and very very far right. That is not likely to happen.

The mood of much of the country has changed. The ability of the media to sway public opinion is poor. But the Democratic base is stuck in its left wing past. Men who like Howard Dean control the Democratic party in nearly every state. They firmly believe that if they can get a true liberal message the nomination, they can win. Hillary is not a true liberal message. Not by their standards.

I look for at least one Democratic candidate to run with a real liberal message. He will propose to un-do Bush 43 and re-do LBJ. He will propose ending the war on terror by walking away, and save jobs by ending free trade. He will propose that the rich pay for free college educations and free job retraining. He will propose lots of pie in the sky. He will propose undoing what Clinton and Bush did. The leftist base will love him. He will have a message the left loves. Hillary will be "Vote for me .. I can win." The problem is the base does not believe she can. Hillary will need to get a leftist message to win the nomination in 2008.

If a real openly leftist candidate for the nomination emerges, Hillary would have a very hard time wining the Democratic Nomination. I think both Kerry and Kennedy dislike Hillary more than words can say. Kennedy will see to tit there is a very leftist Democratic primary candidate to challenge Hillary.

Only after the Democratic party suffers a massive defeat with a true leftist candidate, will the Democratic primary voters be ready to accept a centrist. Hillary is playing the wrong strategy at the wrong time. It is a consistent trait that defines her lack of judgment. Hillary is always looking for people to recognize her brilliance. She is surrounded by them.

Hillary thinks she is the brains and Bill is the mouth. Actually Bill was the brain and Hillary was only the ambition. Hillary will not listen to Bill. She will follow her own beliefs.

Hillary is to Bill Clinton as Mike Tyson is to Mohammad Ali.