Ray Malone's Commentary

I am a great admirer of Harry Truman.. I did not always agree with him on policy.. In fact on domestic policy I mostly disagreed with him.. but I did and do admire his approach to understanding the American people.

Harry didn't think the American people changed much over time. He thought history repeated itself because politicians did not study and learn from history.

For example Harry understood that the Republican campaign against him in 1948 was flawed. Harry was seen as very unpopular. Nixon and McCarthy had found communists in the state department. The Russians had taken all of Eastern Europe and we had not been able to prevent it. Mao's Communists had taken China and we had not been able to prevent it. The economy was not good and Truman's approval rating was in the low 30s. Harry knew that things were bad in 1936 when Roosevelt won a big victory. Roosevelt presented the image of a man trying to fix things. The Republicans just blamed Roosevelt. Truman's strategy was to present himself as the fixer.

Dewey reasoned that with Truman so unpopular that all he had to do was stay above the fray and let his fellow Republicans continue to trash Truman. The polls during the spring and summer of 1948 showed Dewey 20 points ahead. Dewey was still 20 points ahead six weeks before the election. Then media stopped polling. They considered it a waste. It was going to be the biggest landslide ever.

The media did not like Harry any more than today's media likes Bush . The reporters had loved FDR but Harry was bourbon drinking, dirty joke telling, very blue collar sort of guy. He was not of the governing class. He cussed a lot.

But Harry knew something. The Republicans had done well in 1946. They had won the house and senate. And they were blaming Harry for the bad economy. The Republicans refused to pass Truman's economic policy. they said it would make things worse. Truman constantly bated Dewey to propose a fix.

Dewey finally in late summer proposed an economic stimulus package figuring it would shut Truman up. It was as dumb move. Harry adopted the Dewey plan word for word. He called the Republican congress back into session and asked them to pass the Dewey economic plan. Truman said over and over, I think the Dewey plan will work.. why wait until next year and the Dewey administration to get the economy moving. Let's fix it now. If the Republicans will pass the Dewey plan, I will sign it into law. But the Republicans hated Harry Truman.. they were not about to let him get the better of them. The adjourned .. passing nothing.

Did Dewey urge the Republican congress to pass his plan? He did not. He was not about to let Truman get credit for enacting his plan. How could Dewey campaign on fixing the economy if Truman already enacted his plan.

The Republicans hated Harry. They opposed everything he proposed. They even opposed the good things he wanted to do as well as the bad. They hated him and it showed. Harry took advantage of that. He used the Republican hatred to make the case the Republicans were playing politics and he was trying to fix things.

Note that the big issue for most people in 1948 was the economy and it was not good. But Dewey proved that he would rather play politics than fix the problems.. The voter's response was to re-elected Truman and a Democratic House and Senate.

I make the point because 2006 will not be like 1948. The economy will not be bad. It will be very good. The situation in Iraq will not be getting worse, it will be getting better. But the Democrats will be opposing Bush with all the fervor that the Republicans opposed Truman. Even when 60 or 70 percent of the voters know Bush is right, the Democrats will oppose. The Democrats hatred of George W. Bush will not let them do anything but attack and oppose. And their internal party split will not let them propose solutions. They are reduced to hating Bush and all things Republican.

Just as in 1972 the Democrats are divided on the war. I don't mean the elected officials, I mean the rank and file Democrats. A significant number of those who voted for Kerry are not in favor of allowing terrorists unmonitored conversations and they don't want to cut an run in Iraq. They are not for treating terrorism as if if were a crime and not a war.

But the Democrats can't resist. they have to attack and they will not help the situation in any way. They are making the case that they are playing politics. Lots of history teaches that is a dumb political move.

Hillary has started trashing President Bush. She has joined the other Democrats in condemning wire taps on terrorists in the USA. She has to do so.. the leftist Democratic base is demanding that every one get on the Dean and Kerry bandwagon. If she wants the Democratic nomination she has to trash Bush and the war in Iraq and every thing he is doing to win it.

Hillary has also in recent months violated a key rule for presidential candidates. The rule often articulated by Richard Nixon is, First secure the party base, then run for the center.

The process is to play to the base early on.. while winking at the media.. "I am just playing to the base." Then when the base is secure run to the middle while winking at the base, and having some liaison people tell the base "Shhhhh... she has to do this to get the moderate votes."

But Hillary decided some months ago to play to the moderates. It would not be good for her if she was trashing Bush as he won total victory in Iraq. But she did it before she had the base. So the base does not trust her. Now she will have to run a lot further to the left just to get the nomination. It will then be very hard to run to the center.

In 1992 Billy Boy was very careful to line up the base before he ran to the center. I think Hillary does not ask and would not follow any advice Billy Boy gave her. Hillary is proving to be a lot less astute than her husband.

The voters are not media buffs. They judge the economy to be good when their employer is hiring and not laying off. They think the economy is good when they get a raise, and the stores are crowded with shoppers. When the economy is good they don't want changes. They know the economy is good.. they know the Republicans are in charge they will not want to change things.

The Democrats are trying to make the war in Iraq the issue. But if 8 years of failed war in Viet Nam did not do in Richard Nixon in 1972. Don't bet the farm that a successful Iraq will do in George W. Bush's party in 2006.

It was proven many times. Harry Truman made the case that if the voters drew the conclusion that the opposition was playing politics while the President was trying to fix things they would not blame him for the failure to fix things. But Bush has not failed. He fixed the economy and we have a freely elected government in Iraq. We have not been attacked since 911 and the economy is good.

The voters will draw the conclusion that Bush has managed to fix things while the Democrats played politics and fought him every step of the way. They will not reward the Democrats for that behavior. They will punish them.

The media labors under the delusion that they can fool the people. They can for a short time. In 1992 for the last 3 months of the campaign they convinced the voters that the economy was bad and going to get worse. They convinced the voters that that Bush 41 did not care. But they have been beating that same horse for the last 9 months and the economy is booming. They have cried wolf so many times that the voters no longer believe them. And just like the fairy tale if there is a real wolf this summer the voters won't believe them either.

The game as nearly always will be decided by the non ideological moderates. They will see it as Republican fixers and Democrat trashers. .... the Republican white hats against the Democrat black hats. Black hats never win the votes of non ideological moderates.

2006 will be a very bad year to be a Democrat Candidate.