Ray Malone's Commentary

Democrats who want to be president like Hillary and Kerry have to get the Democratic nomination. That means they must get majority support from the Democratic base.

Consider what has happened since the last real Liberal was elected President. The last real liberal elected president was LBJ ... As in he who gave us the Great Society. Since then the Democrats have elected two Presidents... Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Neither one did much to take this nation down the leftist road. Nothing approaching the LBJ Great Society or the FDR New Deal was enacted by those two Democratic presidents. Carter was a total failure on every front and Clinton essentially triangulated the right wing agenda. Didn't Clinton propose ending welfare as we knew it and state the era of big government is over? Imagine how the leftists loved hearing that? They were told it had to be done to get elected. And the leftist base bought it for a while.

The left went along with Al Gore. They expecting Gore to win in 2000 as Clinton's third term. Bush 41 won as Reagan's third term in 1988 and Gore should do the same.. But it was not to be. Dubya defeated Albert the Gore.

In 2002 the Republicans picked up seats in congress. In 2004 the base dumped a real liberal in Dean to nominate a Kerry. They were told by every media outlet that could publish that Kerry would win and Dean would lose. But Kerry did not win. Bush stomped his rump.

The Democratic base is in no mood for a moderate. They believe that if they are going to lose anyway, they might as well lose with a real leftist. But in their heart they think the problem all along is failure to nominate a real leftist. The base wants a "give 'em hell" leftist and they want him or her now. The Democratic base is convinced that if voters are given a choice between a real leftist and a conservative, the voters will chose the leftist for president.

It seems clear by their behavior that every Democrat who wants to be president is making a hard turn to the left. Why? They have to believe it is what it will take to win the Democratic nomination for president. Their polls have to show it. Since 19 Democrats left the reservation to vote for Cloture on Alito, they have to believe that a sharp turn to the left is not good for winning elections in red states.

There are several Democratic Senators and House members whose problem is the general election. Those in the red states have to have some moderate and even Republican support to win. So they have to buck the party leaders who are running for president. They have to distance themselves from the leftist leadership. When those who want to get the Democratic nomination for president have to turn left, it forces those who need to be moderate to need to move to the right.

Those red state Democrats will need to vote with the Republicans on several of issues. Democratic leaders in the Senate especially will have to talk out of both sides of their mouth. You will have to Reid between the lines to understand where the Senate Minority leader is coming from.

That will make it next to impossible for Democrats to effectively oppose the Bush agenda this election year. The conventional wisdom is elected officials do not like to take controversial stands in election years. But with the Democratic Presidential wanna be's making a hard left turn. other Democrats up for re-election will have to make a public right turn or be tarnished by the leftist position of their leaders.

So not only will Democrats not remain united enough to stop President Bush's judicial appointments, they will not be able to stop other legislative items either.

Success in the congress almost always requires two things one party united and the other divided.. the united party tends to win the contests. There is no mistaking that the Democrats are divided. They will be until after the 2008 election is over. It is a rare but not unprecedented situation.

There are signs that for the first time in 3 years the Republicans may be united. If Republican can remain united and are able to reach out to some moderate Democrats, the Democratic filibuster attempts will fail. Most likely Reid will try to prevent Democrats from even trying them. If he can't do that, he will tell the press the filibuster attempt will fail. He will try to make filibuster failures a non news item.

We need to carefully consider what we learn from the media. They pass along as truth many Democratic talking points that can not be true.

For example the statement that the Democrats decided not to fight the Bush supreme court nominees until a third and decisive nomination seems to me to be totally false. They say that only the next nomination could change the court from liberal to conservative on abortion and several other issues and that the Democrats are husbanding their resources for the big fight that may come after this years election when another Supreme Court Justice retires.

So what was the situation before the last two nominations were confirmed.. President Bush needed to appoint and confirm 3 conservative justices to change the court from a leftist to a conservative majority. Does that not mean for the left to retain control they only had to win one out of three confirmations? That seems to say that if the left was able to force Bush into a Souter type nomination on any one of the three, the left would retain control of the court. Right?

When have you ever heard of someone who must win one out of three contests conceding the first two to the opponent and staking everything on the outcome of the third? That makes no sense at all.

The Democrats need momentum for the fall elections. And failing to stop either Roberts or Alito is not the way to inspire Democrats.

When the media says the Democrats were just saving up for the big final bout, it is an example of the media passing on Democratic spin as if it were the truth.

Remember the Media only lies about subjects of which you know the truth!

We should not get discouraged by the media reporting Democratic talking points as truth. Most people who go into the media are government fans ... just like most people who go into sports casting are sports fans. So they tend to buy what the pro government party is selling. They also tend to see the world though their own rose colored glasses.

People who earn their living working mostly for the media, such as pollsters, learn to tell their bosses what the bosses what to hear. The pollsters tend to do that until election time gets close. Which brings on another saying..

The girls get prettier at closing time and the polls all get more accurate at voting Time.

One other point that became evident in the 1972 election. Nixon's poll numbers were not that good in 1972. He was consistently under 50 percent. Yet on election day Nixon won over 60 percent of the vote. Why how could a president with low job approval numbers get 60 percent of the vote.

The reason it turned out was those opposed to the Vietnam policy were in two groups. One group wanted to surrender now and avoid the rush later. They were the Democratic Base. The other group wanted Nixon to carpet bomb North Viet Nam until they unconditionally surrendered.

Those who wanted all out victory NOW were unhappy with Nixon. But when the choice was Nixon or McGovern they could not tolerate a McGovern victory. They voted for Nixon,

I think the same thing is taking place today. There are those who are opposed to President Bush and the Republicans because they are tough enough. They will not replace Republican Senate and House members with surrender now Democrats.

The evidence is pretty convincing getting the Democratic nomination is a curse. To get the 2008 nomination a the candidate will have to take positions that will result in losing the general election. Democratic Senate and House members will have to distance themselves from their parties stated positions.