Ray Malone's Commentary

There is a lot of speculation about what is going to happen in the 2008 election. Many think that 2008 will be the Democrat's year. They feel certain that after 2 terms of Republican leadership under Bush the voters will want to give the Democrats a chance. If the Democrats run a moderate .. that is a DINO, that might very well be the case.

But that is not what the rank and file Democrats want. Listen to the Deaniacs. They won't stand for a DINO. Unless the 2008 Democratic Nominee is a true liberal, they will sit on their hands come election day. A candidate that is DINO enough to win the centrists, is DINO enough to lose the true liberals in the primaries. The Democratic party is very divided. There is real evidence that shows today's Democratic base are a mirror image of the Republican party of 1961. The base is convinced that " ME TO Democrats" can only lose. The Democratic base believes that an openly leftist candidate can win.

The left learned a lot from the post mortems of the 2004 election. The left understands that there are nearly 50 million eligible voters that do not vote. They are convinced that 30 million of them are liberals. After all when they poll the public, Democrats do a lot better than when they just poll registered voters. The Democrats do their worst when only likely voters are polled. They are convinced that if they can get the base and the non voting liberals to the polls in 2008, they won't need a majority of the centrist's votes to win.

They believe that Rove's efforts to get the normally nonvoting conservatives to the polls, won the re-election for George Bush. They know there are more non voting Democrats than non Voting Republicans. They are convinced that if they play the same game in 2008 they can win. They know there are more non-voting leftists than there are non-voting conservatives.

The Democratic base including their party leader Howard Dean are convinced that if they can just energize the leftists base and get them all to the polls they can not lose. They believe those non voting leftists do not vote because the Democrats have only nominated centrists. They fell for it in 2000 and 2004. They fell for the lie that Kerry could win while Dean could not. They are convinced that a Dean could have won and that "moderates" like Gore and Kerry can only lose.

Most of the Democratic base believes that Rove won the 2004 election for Bush, by getting out a lot of right wing people who normally do not vote. They look at the turn out numbers... 123 million voters in 2004 as opposed to 105 million in 2000. They figure that if they get out the greater number of leftists who normally do not vote they can with with a very liberal Candidate. They believe that only a very openly leftist Democratic candidate can win.

The Democrat base lead by Howard Dean believes that if they get out all the left they can beat any Republican in 2008. They will not nominate a moderate, any more than the Republicans nominated a moderate in 1964. Only after the leftists have suffered a massive defeat at the polls in 2008, will they allow a DINO to win their nomination.

What the Democratic Base and Dean do not understand is they must get the nonvoting Liberals to vote with out losing the Centrist vote. The problem is no leftist can hope to win the centrist vote. And no mild liberal can get the non voting liberals to the polls. The Democrats have no issues that get out the base like the gay marriage, gun control, and coddling terrorists do for the Republicans while not driving centrists away. Leftist motivators such as nationalized industry, socialized medicine, and gay marriage drives a majority of the centrists away. The base is in the process of trading al large number of centrists r for a smaller number of non voting leftists.

Hillary misreads the Democratic base. She has polling to show the base wants very, very, badly to win. The Clintons know very well it will take a moderate Democrat to win. Therefore Hillary is going to try to appear moderate. She does not understand that the Democratic base thinks they lost in 2000 and 2004 because they nominated moderates. Yes Virginia, the Democratic base thinks of Gore and Kerry as moderates. In their mind they lost with moderates. In their mind only a real liberal can win because only a true liberal can get those reluctant leftists to the polls.

They also reason that if they are going to lose anyway, they want to lose with a full blown liberal at the helm. They will try one in 2008.

Like the Goldwaterites on the Republican side in 1964, the far leftists think they just need to get out their message and the voters will respond with support. They fall for the fallacy that the arguments that appeal to them, will appeal to a vast majority of votes. They believe they are mainstream.. and the remainder of the mainstream will vote for them... if they just get out the true leftist message. It is hard for the left and the media to understand they are not the main stream.

After the Democrats suffer a Goldwater sized defeat, most of them will come to understand that far left wingers no more than far right wingers can be elected. But it will take a massive defeat to convince the deaniacs and those who support him that they are wrong.

Bush is about as far right as the Republicans can go and win. The Bush wins were razor thin.

The Coaches son will win the presidency in 2008. George Allen is going to win. He will win the solid south by a huge majority. For several reasons. He is likeable.. never underestimate likeability as a factor in elections. Allen is good with words. He is a great salesman. And he inherited his fathers will to win. He watched his father adapt .. leaning from every failed play.. and using that knowledge to design wining plays.

Hillary will go down in history crying to the world that she could have been president if the media and the far leftists had not done her in. But the Democratic base is Hillary's great problem. She will try to emulate her husband .. she will try to be all things to all people. But she can not biden her time or kerry on with the orchestrated trashing she will have to endure. Dizzy Dean may throw a few fast balls past her as well. She whill have to fight back and her inherent dislikeability will do her in.

When the party that hates the Karl from Texas and loves the Karl from Germany, faces the voters, they will likely find their marx on history will be punctuated with daschled hopes and deaniac screams.