Ray Malone's Commentary

The media is always impressed when candidates out of the main stream raise large sums of money on the internet. I think the reason is quite simple. If a person hold views that are held by most Americans there is no shortage of politicians who hold those views. If on the other hand, one holds views that only a small minority of the public holds, then when a politician comes along expressing those views, those persons that agree will tend to send money.

Take for example the views expressed by Rush Limbaugh. When Rush's program went national it was only carried by 50 radio stations. They were smaller, lower powered, radio stations with poor ratings. No one thought that Rush's show would be a big success. But the 50 stations with which he started, figured he couldn't do any worse than what they were programming and he might do a bit better.

But there were 20 some million Americans that shared Rush's views and those views were never expressed in the media. Soon those 50 low power. poorly rated stations, were near the top in their markets from noon until 3:00PM. Soon those 3 hours were sold out and his show had a waiting list of sponsors.

But what about the leftist leaning shows that stations tried. We know that recent elections have been close. For every conservative Rush listener there has to be a person who holds the opposite position to Rush. So stations put on people who were the mirror image of Rush.. people as far to the left as Rush was to the right. And those leftist shows bombed. Not one has generated an audience that is more than a fraction of the Limbaugh audience.

Why? Because their needs are met by the MSM. Those who believe in the left need only to tune to NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN or pick up a newspaper to find their positions presented and praised. There was a pent up demand for Rush no pent up demand for his leftist opposite.

It is a supply and demand situation. So Obama started out pushing views on issues that were in short supply, mainly because only a few people agree with him. So those that agreed with Obama were anxious to hear more. They sent him money. And the millions poured in. Yes he raised more millions from the conventional Democratic sources, but the millions that came in from the net were from those hearing his far leftist pitch that no one else including Hillary was pitching.

But Obama realizes that he can't win promoting these positions only held by a small minority of Americans. So he must move to the mainstream. He is moving to the mainstream of those to the left of center, but the main stream never the less. What happens as he does so?

As should have been expected, the money coming from the far left internet donors started to dry up as soon as he started changing positions. His money peaked in February and has been declining ever since. Each month the money decreases as Obama openly changes his positions from ones the far left supports to ones they despise.

So in effect having won the nomination by getting out his minority of supporters in caucus states, Obama is faced with starting over.. remaking his image... changing from a far leftist to a centrist.

It seems obvious to me that having won the nomination, he knows he must start over. He is throwing away the support that got him the nomination while going after the support he has never had. That is a huge gamble. It is a gamble no one else has ever taken.

Will it work? I think the pollsters have been counting on his far leftists, many of whom do not
regularly vote, to be coming out this year in mass to support Obama. But Obama is turning his back on them. And if one looks at the blogs, his early supporters are angry about his vote on FISA, and his movement to the center in general. As should be expected, they feel betrayed.. as if they have been used.

They will not come out to vote for him. He has in fact lied to them and they are angry. There are those on the right who think that the left will vote for Obama anyway.. He is, they say, far to the left of a Hillary and other leading Democrats. Does anyone really think they will behave better than the Greenies that refused to vote for Al "Earth in the balance" Gore. Gore was not green enough for the far left. It is hard to imagine that .. but he was. The 2000 election returns are the proof. Obama will be seen as a dirty rotten turncoat to his far leftist supporters. When they don't have a candidate they stay at home and don't vote.

Democrats have always faced a real problem. They are a party made of of people who don't agree on many issues. They are the working class white Democrats who oppose abortion and favor gun ownership and concealed carry. They are the leftists Democrats in academia who favor unrestricted abortion and making gun ownership illegal. They are the older Democrats who favored the Economic policies of JFK which was cut taxes and encourage investment. As opposed to white and black working class democrats who favor taxing the rich and income redistribution. They are the blacks who want reparations and lots more affirmative action programs. They are the white working class Democrats who hate reparations and despise affirmative action.

There are the Democrat peacenics, otherwise known as OLD HIPPIES, who believe in down with the USA and want to surrender in the war on terror now. But there are just as many Democrats who want to nuke the Muslims now and make the world safe for mass terrorist funerals. There are the ordinary working class Democrats who think screw the environment, lets drill every where we can drill for oil. They want cheap gas for their SUVs. But there the elite democrats who favor mass transit and government run transportation. They think people don't need cars. All working class folks need is a bus ticket so they can stand on the corner and wait for it to come to take them to work.

The more McCain can force Obama into specifics on policy, and drives Obama out of the unspecific "Change You Can Believe In" mode, the less support Obama will enjoy and the less money he will raise.

Consider the Obama staff meeting that must have recently taken place. Obama has the nomination sewed up. There had to be a meeting of his aids, advisers, and handlers to supply the answer to the question, "What must we change, if anything, to win the fall election." Simple observation says the answer must have been "EVERYTHING!!!!"

If one looks at what has been changed, what positions modified, the numbers of reversals of stands, we know what must have been presented at that meeting. And what was presented could not have been just an opinion. An opinion no matter who holds it is never enough to make the sort of gigantic changes made by the Obama campaign. The data presented at that meeting had to be bad, stark, and proof of the prospect of defeat. Not an opinion.. not a guess. it had to be PROOF of a near certain defeat!!!

I have been studying campaigns for many years. Never in history has any campaign made such major shifts in positions. Over and over on TV I have heard the Obamaites tell us that these changes will not hurt Obama because McCain has made many changes in his positions as well

But that is not logical. Everything I have learned in politics is that changing positions for a politician's supporters is much like a husband being unfaithful to his wife. The situation can not be fixed by telling the wife that the guy next door is cheating on his wife too. Turning out to being unfaithful to a group's core beliefs costs the candidate that group's support. That is just a fact born out by all of political history.

The other side of the coin is nearly everyone is aware of the shift in positions. This has a disastrous effect on believability. Democratic voters are saying that Obama is NOW telling us what we want to hear. But a year ago he was saying what I didn't want to hear. CAN I BELIEVE HIM? is the question ,and the usual answer is a resounding NO!

Will this add votes to McCain's total? The answer to that is a resounding no. What it does do is greatly reduce the turn out for Obama. It does not mean more votes for McCain. It does however translate to fewer votes for Obama.

But that is not a bad thing. What happens when the head of a ticked is in trouble with a lot of his base? They don't turn out to vote is what happens. And when they don't they don't vote for Democrat candidates for the Senate and House. They don't vote for state legislators and state senators. They don't vote for mayors or city council meetings.

In my view unless Obama can find a way to regain the support of those he has lost, and gain the trust of those he must win. Obama and the Democratic party can be in serious trouble in 2008.

The other factor that is working against Obama is there is no FEAR FACTOR working in his favor. McCain is not feared by the left as W was feared by the left. McCain is not the man the left must come out to vote against.

On the other hand Obama is the man Republicans fear far more than they ever feared a Gore or a Kerry. They FEAR A PRESIDENT OBAMA. And they will hold their nose and vote for McCain. They will also vote for Republicans up and down the ticket.

I started posting this line last fall as I looked at the Democrats taking specific positions on controversial issues. Even now Nancy Pelosi is not keeping quiet about drilling for oil. She is flat out against it and calls press conferences to let her fellow Democrats know where she stands. She and Harry Reid have for two years openly taken positions on issues that over half of their fellow Democrats reject.

It is why the House and Senate have such low approval numbers. Reid and Pelosi must believe that most Democrats support what they have been doing. They must think the problem is that Democrats don't understand what they are doing. They can't see that is not the case. They are, in my view, shooting themselves in the rump.

Reid and Pelosi are not knowledgeable enough to understand who most Democrats are on the issues. Obama is at least smart enough to know what the Democrats that voted in the primaries wanted. He could hardly miss the lessons taught in New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, and South Dakota. Obama just has the impossible task of changing into what most voters to the left of center want.

I for one don't think Obama can do it. We will know for sure early in the morning on Nov 5th 2008.