Ray Malone's Commentary

I can't think of anything more counter productive to Obama's chances than the media pictures painting him as a Messiah. The way to appeal to working class white men and women is to look like an ordinary nice guy. There are millions of democrats that will not vote for a ruler. WE DO NOT ELECT RULERS .. no matter how benign. WE ELECT PUBLIC SERVANTS.

The major appeal of the Democratic party since FDR is it elects men who will take on the Ruling Class on behalf of the men and women who work by the hour using their hands. FDR was of the ruling class... but he was for the little guy. Who better to take on the ruling class than a member of that class that rejects its oppression of the downtrodden. FDR in his fire side chats was always reaching out to the little man... stating what the bad rich guys were doing and how he was going to stop them in their tracks. The last thing Roosevelt wanted to look like was a Messiah. Eleanor, his wife, was always out trying to help the down trodden and oppressed. It was never about them.. It was always about the little guy. And little guys by the millions elected FDR. From Truman to Kennedy to LBJ, it was always about the Democratic candidate doing what he could for the working men and women.

People ask what was the appeal of Bill Clinton. Bill created the impression that if you went out chasing skirts with him, he not only would get himself a wild and sexy female, he would get you one too. Bill was a good ole boy. They guy who was your slightly wild but still good ole buddy. He'd look out for you.

RULE 1 FOR A DEMOCRAT IS NEVER EVER LOOK LIKE A GUY DESIGNED TO BE SERVED BY THE MASSES. A DEMOCRAT MUST LOOK LIKE THE GUY THAT IS INTENT ON SERVING THE ORDINARY VOTER. There are a handful of people on the fringes of both parties that look for a principled leader who will do what they think is right to take care of them. Most of the Democrat base is NOT looking for a candidate to head the ruling class, they are looking for a candidate that will confront the ruling class on their behalf. Obama is in a world of hurt with a large segment of the Democratic base.

Democrats have for decades convinced their base that there is a group of BIGS that actually run everything. BIG OIL, BIG AUTO, BIG UTILITIES, BIG STORES, BIG MANUFACTURERS, BIG MONEY .. that actually runs things. When things go wrong it is always the BIG'S fault. And it is the DEMOCRAT who will take on the BIGS and keep them from hurting the Little Man. They want a candidate who will CONFRONT THE BIGS on the little man's behalf. They will not vote for a BIG to take the CHAIRMANSHIP of the BIGS ORGANIZATION. They take one look at BARRACK and they KNOW they will get SCREWED!!!

But the voters who nearly always decide elections are the independents. In the last two elections the independent voters have split. They have two criteria. Some vote for the candidate they like best and some vote for the candidate who will do the most for them Those that voted for the guy they liked voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.. About half the independents voted for Bush because they liked him. The other half voted for Gore and Kerry because they thought Gore and Kerry would do the most for them. But that is not always the case. Sometimes if one candidate is liked and the other one not likable, they will mostly vote on the likability issue. If both are likable or both equally unlikable they will vote for the one that will do the most for them. In 64 they went for LBJ.. not because the liked LBJ but because he would do things for them. But in 1976 they went for Carter because they liked Carter more than Ford. Neither Carter or Ford was promising to do much for them.

Remember it is not about doing the most for the nation or for society. The non ideological independents tend to vote for the person they think will do the most for them. These pictures of Obama make him look like a Messiah who is looking for subjects to SERVE HIM. That is a very dumb thing to do if a candidate wants to get more than 1/3 of the votes! As they usually do, the media is broadcasting what appeals to them. The media rarely shows what appeals to the voters a Democrat must get in order to win.

Those are the reasons that Obama is not doing well with independents. He would not be your good buddy and he comes across as being all for himself and not for you. One other factor is the same as it was in 2000 and 2004. A huge percentage of independent voters have already made up their minds. In the 20th century it was common for nearly all independents to wait until the final weeks or even days of a campaign to get interested enough to decide which candidate to support. With cable TV and 24/7 coverage, the independents get tons of coverage in the primary months. It is next to impossible to escape the coverage. And as a result it next to impossible to escape having opinions about the candidates.

Independents are now making up their minds based on the image the candidates created for winning the nomination. That is terrible for Obama. He planned to run to the left for the primaries and run to the center for the campaign. That was great in 1968, but this year the independents had made up their minds by June. Running to the left for the Primaries is just running to the left for ALL VOTERS. Following that by running to the center only destroys any respect the independents may have felt for the candidate.

McCain started at the center stayed at the center and therefore has no real credibility problem. When one looks inside media polls and finds they are polling 36 percent Democrats to 27 percent republicans and 36 percent independents, you can see they are weighting the raw numbers to favor Democrats. They say that is the way these groups will turn out but that is not the case. I think the media knows it. What is a lot more likely this year is 35 percent democrats, 35 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents. If those percentages are used, then McCain has a large lead that will likely grow larger as time wears on.

Obama's own research must show that on the issue of Foreign Policy McCain has a big lead in the polls. They are sending Obama on the trip to change that perspective. But OBAMA is faced with the problem of changing peoples minds. The research shows that to be almost impossible to do within the time span of a few months. It can be done but it takes years.

What Democrats, and that includes Obama, do not understand is the real nature of opposition to the war. Look inside the polls. About seventy percent of the voters want the war to be over. They want the troops to be brought home. Ask if they want the troops brought home and 70 percent of likely voters will say yes. Ask which candidate do they want to handle the situation in Iraq and you be 65 percent saying the want McCain. How can that be?

About 35 percent of the voters, those on the left, want to surrender now and avoid the rush later. About 35 percent think Bush is doing Ok in Iraq and about 30 percent say blow the terrorists in Iraq to kingdom come and then come home. Yes nearly 70 percent of Americans are opposed to the way we have conducted the war, but only 35 percent want to surrender.

The Democrats judged the results 2006 election as a condemnation of the Bush administration on the war. And it was not. In fact the party in power has lost seats in the house and senate in the 6th year election of every administration that had not lost major support previous to the 6th year. There was a 6 percent shift from Republicans to Democrats in 2006. That is what it takes to overcome the Gerrymander in many districts. But the approval numbers of congress says to me that the voter shift may go the other way in 2008.

During the 6th year of Ike's administration in 1958 the Democrats picked up seats The Democrats lost lots of seats in both houses in the 6th year of the Kennedy-Johnson administration. The same was true in the Nixon-Ford administration. And the Republicans lost a substantial number of seats in the 6th year of the Reagan administration. And it was the 2nd year of the Clinton administration when the Democrats suffered huge losses in both houses. It was a certainty that the Republicans would lose seats in the 6th year of the Bush administration no matter what the condition peace, war, the economy or popularity of the President. It is what voters do in the 6th year of a presidency. They have done it time after time after time.

The independents tend to change the party of the presidential candidate they support every 8 years. And they tend to vote against the party of the president in congressional elections in the presidents 6th year. It is a factor independent of party or ideology.

But now the congressional approval rating is something less than 15 percent. That means congress has lost the support of nearly all Republicans, nearly all Independents and close to half of the Democrats. Imagine what the media would be reporting if the Republicans controlled congress. Every other story would be about the coming Republican loss of the house and senate in the 2008 election. The fact that the media does not mention it does not mean it is not happening.

As I look at Obama, I am reminded of what the media experts told Gerry Ford in 1976. They said the polls showed that Gerry was not a caring person. They figured the economy was bad, and Gerry didn't care. So what did the experts do? They dressed Gerry in a casual sweater and slacks and had him do a commercial from Air Force 1 with Gerry talking to the public like a caring friend. I remember literally screaming at the TV, have Gerry propose a fix for the economy. That is have Gerry introduce a plan to reduce inflation, increase employment and lower interest rates and the voters will decide he cares a lot more than Jimmy Carter CARING Means doing something to cure the PROBLEM. NOT SAYING YOU CARE. AND TAKING A BIG TRIP WILL NOT PROVE BARRACK CAN DO WAR AND PEACE.

But it is typical for the media to put a candidate in a position where he is to look like he is what the voters want. But the secret to success is not looking the part ... it is proposing what the voters think will fix things. But Barrack has about 35 percent approval on foreign policy. He was so very anti-war in the primaries that he is in a no win position. If he tries to go in the McCain direction, he will lose 2 democrats for every independent he picks up. And if he stays where he is he loses the issue 65 to 35. McCain is in the drivers seat in this situation.

The best thing that Barrack can do is change the subject. But to what? Can you say mass transit, tiny cars, and the European solution of 7 dollar gasoline? How about NO DRILLING FOR OIL IF I'M PRESIDENT. That will not fly or even float.

Why is Barrack Obama playing the foreign policy roll? Is it things are not looking so good for Obama in NOT DRILLING FOR OIL LAND? The domestic issue is

IT IS THE PRICE OF GASOLINE, STUPID!!!

And Barrack the Obama can't win that one either. Except for Michigan the unemployment rate is not that bad. It is the price of gasoline that is bothering voters. What about those bad loans made to people who should not have gotten them? That means lots of bad credit Democrats are facing or have faced foreclosure. Did anyone ever expect them to vote Republican?

Hillary was trying to move to the center all during the primaries. She had to if she hoped to win the election. Obama won the nomination..

The Obama campaign is slowly beginning to figure out that what he did to get the nomination will cost him the Presidency.