Ray Malone's Commentary

The most encouraging thing I have seen is the Senate Democrat's attempts to block what the President wants to do. Their experience in recent elections shows clearly that obstructionism does not work to their advantage. There hopes tend to get daschled, but they continue to do it.

I would ask you to consider under what set of circumstances does a party continue a strategy that has a history of failure? The only valid answer to that question is that all other strategies they can realistically adopt produce an even worse outcome.

This nation started a realignment about 40 years ago. The South transitioned from the Solid Conservative Democratic South to the Solid Conservative Republican South. New England is still transitioning from the Solid Liberal Republican New England to the Solid Liberal Democratic New England.

Some other States are trending from Liberal to Conservative. Few if any are trending from Conservative to Liberal. In recent years the border states to the South have been transitioning from left to right. West Virginia and Kentucky come to mind. Even traditional leftist states like Wisconsin have become battle grounds. The birth place of the leftist progressive socialist movement is trending to the right. The realignment is clearly traveling North.

The Democrats understand their problem. For every Maine in which they will pick up Senators, they are very likely to lose a West Virginia.

Today the Republican 55 to 45 majority in the Senate is a not a solid majority. No party has in the last 75 years had a solid majority. For example LBJ had to do a ton of arm twisting to get a dozen and a half DINOs to go for his liberal social agenda. But he got it done.

Today the Republicans have a similar situation. Republicans have 55 Senators, at least 10 of which are RINOs. The President and the Majority Leader of the Senate have to find a way to keep the RINOs on the reservation. The reason the Democrats are attacking Tom Delay is he is very good at keeping the RINOs on the Reservation in the House. A Senate Majority leader named Tom Delay is a Democrat's worst fear.

Frist has been a failure. He not only can't keep the RINOs on the reservation, he has a number of Conservatives demanding his removal. Looking at Frist's recent behavior is proof. Instead of working to win support from fellow senators, Frist was speaking at Harvard, and making an appearance at a NASCAR race over weekend off time. He has an open mutiny and he is attending NASCAR races while claiming ultimate victory. UH HUH!!!! He was claiming victory on the Sunday before he got beat like a drum by his own caucus. Claiming ultimate victory while producing defeat is proof of a loser. A winner would be going to the public pleading for their help or working behind the scenes to put the fear of personal defeat in every RINOs heart. He would not be speaking at Harvard or attending stock car races. A coach can't control his team does not deserve anything but a permanent vacation. The key to a leader holding RINO support is to make sure that every RINO owes the leader big time and every RINO knows that a double cross will get paid back with interest. A leader has to spend his off time helping his troops. What part of, "The weakest players require the most coaching!" does Frist fail to understand.

But even with an incompetent Frist as Majority Leader Republican long term prospects look good. There will be liberal states that have RINO Senators who will be replaced by DINO or Liberal Senators. But there is an equal number of trending Conservative states in which Liberal Senators will be replaced by Conservative Senators. There will still be something close to a 55-45 senate but it will be much more solid for Republicans.

Once Republicans get to the point where they have 51 fairly conservative Senators the problems go away. There will always have be four or five RINOs but that should not stop the Republican agenda. The forty five Democrats in the Senate will soon enough contain 5 or 6 DINOs. A good Republican Majority Leader should be able to hold his own RINOs and peal off a DINO or 3.

The Democrats are playing desperate tactics. It is like a full court press in basketball. No team that is ahead does a full court press. They do it when they are behind and the only chance is a tactic that mostly fails.

I am not discouraged by our current situation. It could be a lot better with a competent Majority Leader.. but the Republican's situation will not likely be as bad as the Democrat's situation for many many years to come.

The political organization of Religious voters is in the early stages. For example many of the people who won Ohio for President Bush are now Ohio Republican Party Employees. For the first time in my memory white Pastors are working to get out the vote. They are openly supporting conservative candidates. They will be an increasing force to be reckoned with.

The Democratic base has made the mistake of going for unpopular agenda items with out the votes to win. And they have aroused the one group of people who can give the left nearly permanent defeat. Here in ultimate battle ground of Ohio, the Republican candidate went from 12 percent of the black vote to 16 percent of the black vote in 2004. History teaches that when even a super effort by Democrats could not keep a increased percentage of blacks from deserting the party, the number voting Republican will increase. Mostly under the media radar, today's head of the RNC is reaching out to blacks. He is not being rejected out of hand. If the next election finds blacks in Ohio going from 16 to 18 or 20 percent it becomes very hard for a Democrat to win. And the trend predicts as Ohio goes today Michigan goes tomorrow. Can you imagine an Illinois that is competitive? The trends look good for increased Black, Spanish and religious support for Republicans. That support comes out of the Democratic base.

The problems for Democrats is they don't agree on many of the issues. There are traditional Democrats who will not stay in a party that supports the gay agenda. There are traditional Democrats who will not support abortion and leftist judges. There are traditional Democrats who will not support affirmative action.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean is bringing these issues to the forefront. He is making it hard for Democrats to hold parts of their base. In the past Democrats have ignored their differences and focused all efforts on the one area of agreement.... the economy.

But the Democrats in an effort to oppose Bush have deserted their traditional economic strategy. There was a time when tax cuts and deficit spending was the Democrats economic policy when times were not good. Today their public stance is to raise taxes and balance the budget. That does not appeal to traditional Democrats. The Democrats in an effort to oppose President Bush have adopted the Republican economic policy that never ever got pubic support

We may not see it clearly, but the state of Ohio and more of the Mid-West is trending Conservative. What Ronald Reagan started is what George W. Bush is continuing. Both Reagan and Bush 43 have adopted those parts of the Republican agenda that work. They also adopted those parts of the Democrat agenda that work.

That has left the Democrats with that part of the Democrat agenda that doesn't work. By blindly opposing President Bush they have adopted the part of the old Republican agenda that does not work either.

The Democrats have adopted the basic Lose/Lose situation. The dumbest move a party can make is to drop what made them successful just because their opposition changed their position.

What an intelligent Democratic party would have done is accuse President Bush of being a closet Democrat. They would say he has stolen our ideas... but tragically not enough of them.

It is called taking credit for your opponents success. It is a technique that can drive a deep wedge between a Republican and his base.

Democrats have allowed their anger to cause them to oppose President Bush on every issue. That is a lose lose situation. It has never worked in the past. It is not likely to work now..