Ray Malone's Commentary

Several things are made clear by Obama turning down public money to raise lots more private money.

We can draw the conclusion that Obama thought the value of lots more money was greater than the negative press of going back on his word. That is not the act of a man who is wining an election. Candidates that are winning don't do things that could cause negative press. The key words in a wining campaign are " What we are doing is working DON'T CHANGE ANYTHING!!!"

In a losing campaign the key words are, "We have to do something different. The worst that can happen is we lose by a larger margin and it might even work!"

So how does Obama know he is losing? Some polls show him 15 points ahead. Bet the farm that his own internal polls show Obama is in big trouble. And he did not believe he was in trouble when he said he would take public money or he would not have said it. The public polls have not changed except in Obama's favor. So it has to be his private polls. They are very accurate and they have to show that Obama is in major trouble.

Now lets ask and answer some questions. Obama has turned down 85 million in order to get a lot more money. Why? In all recent campaigns candidates have spent their money only in states where the campaign was competitive. Logic says that where a candidate is more than 8 or 9 points behind and the undecided's are less than the margin there is nothing to be gained by running big advertising campaigns. It is very hard to change made up minds and there is very little evidence it can even be done. No candidate has ever done it.

Recent campaigns have spent money in battleground states where the independent voters hold sway, In the past independents wait until October to make up their minds. But in 2004 that was not the case. In 2004 Independents made up their minds at the same time Republicans and Democrats did. That was in the late spring after the nominees are known.

In the 2004 campaign the Independents split evenly between Bush and Kerry. So the candidate that got the most new voters and turned out more of his base won. That was George W. Bush. The campaign came down to one state... OHIO. And Rove chose not to buy a saturation ad campaign in the final weeks. Kerry did. Rove felt that made up minds could not be changed except if they were irritated enough by the saturation ads. In other words Rove felt that lots of Kerry ads with few if any Bush ads, would turn Kerry voters against Kerry. Kerry ran lots of ads and Bush won the election.

And for Independents 2008 is like 2004 except in one respect. As they did in 2004 the independents have already made up their minds. But they are going 58 percent for McCain and 32 percent for Obama. That leaves just 10 percent undecided. If all 10 percent went for Obama he would be lose the Independent vote 58 to 42.

Last week the Obama campaign showed Hillary supporters Obama's plan to win while losing Ohio and Florida. Hillary's people promptly got that word to McCain. Who immediately put out the word that Obama was giving up on Ohio and Florida. Did Obama's people say that is garbage.. Why would we give up on states in which we are tied or leading?

NO!! The Obama camp said they would spend the assets needed to win Ohio and Florida. Those are the words of a campaign whose internal polls show they are LOSING OHIO AND FLORIDA.

So Obama has to change voters minds. But changing a large number of made up minds has never been done . Obama has lost over 10 percent of the Democrats to McCain and he is behind 58 to 32 with Independents. That is a lot of minds to change.

Plus McCain has the support of a greater percentage of Republicans than Obama has of Democrats. Obama, in other words, is up excrement creek with out a paddle. He has to be prepared to take major gambles with low odds of success. And that is what he has just announced he is doing.

So what can Obama do? He has to try to do the next to impossible. He must change the minds of Democrats, Republicans and most importantly Independents who have already decided to vote for McCain. That, if it can be done at all, will take more money than has ever been spent before. It will take hundreds of millions.. and even with that kind of money the odds are very slim.

Obama's main problem is McCain did not win the support of those voters. Obama drove them to McCain. Refusing to wear a flag pin; refusing hold his hand over his heart during the National Anthem, his preacher screaming GOD DAMN AMERICA, and then Obama excusing him, is a good way to drive many likely supporters into the McCain camp, and IT DID!!!

Obama has caused many people who voted for John Kerry in 2004 to decide to vote for John McCain in 2008. McCain didn't do any thing to get these votes. It was not that McCain won them. It was that Obama drove them away. So now Obama must find a way to get them back.

To do that he must convince those that oppose him that they are not to believe their lying eyes, ears and memory that caused them to decide to vote for his opponent

I don't believe there is enough money in the world to get that done... but Obama is going to try to raise and spend about a half a billion in an attempt to do a mass brain washing. The odds of that working are at best very slim.

One thing we do know. Is that large amounts of advertising run during campaigns drives voters away. The spending of all the 85 million supplied by the public ticks off a lot of voters. What will a half billion dollars worth of advertising do? Even supporters get irked by spot after spot after spot on TV and Radio. Running tons of ads trying to change Obama's image will tick many voters off.

He can't go negative on McCain. That will just paint him as a nasty no good SOB trying to fool voters. He can't go humorous.. he has a serious problem. He can go goody too shoes but that will just get the ("Why won't that con artist shut up!" ) reaction.

My view is the evidence is Obama has dug himself into a hole and there is no way he can crawl out. His fawning fans in the media can't fix the mess he has made for himself.

I think that deep inside Obama has spent most of his life trying to convince other blacks that he is really black and spent the rest trying to convince Arabs that he is really an Arab. It never occurred to him that he might need to convince Americans that he is a real American. It is too late to do so now.