Ray Malone's Commentary

From time to time many people on the right become upset over the rate of progress the Bush administration is making in the Congress. After all, voters put 55 Republicans in the Senate and yet they can't work their will.

For those of us who are frustrated perhaps a bit of a history lesson followed by a few comments might help some of us endure the times.

For most of our nations history .. at least since the establishment of the Republican party... both major parties have had members on both the left and the right. For example Presidents Taft and Coolidge were considered quite conservative. President Teddy Roosevelt was quite liberal for his time. Ike was pretty much a centrist... so much so that he was offered both the Democrat and the Republican nominations in 1952. Reagan was more conservative. And Bush 41 is a bit more hard ball than Reagan. Remember they borked Bork.. They are not doing as well at borking Bolten.

FDR was very libera...l as was LBJ. But , Kennedy and Clinton were not nearly so leftist. For years the Democrats had conservative Senators like Scoop Jackson and Strom Thurman. But no more.

LBJ actually started the trend. LBJ went far left and got the support of several liberal Republicans while angering several conservative Democrats. Then Richard Nixon reached out to conservative Democrats. Nixon called it realignment and that is what it was. Realignment continues today. Nixon went after the Southern Democratic conservative voters in 1968.. at the cost of losing the support of the liberal Rockefeller Republicans. Those Conservative Democrats were soon Conservative Republicans and the Rockefellers became Democrats.

The Solid Democratic South that had been a one party area since the end of the civil war, became the solid Republican South. Meanwhile back in New England the once solid Liberal Republican New England started to transition to the Democrats. That transition is not complete.

Today there are no conservatives in the Democratic party.. at least in the Senate. There are still some liberal Republicans in the Republican party. With six year terms and voters who tend to send incumbents back to office it takes many decades for a total realignment to occur.

Today there are 55 so called Republicans in the Senate. There are 45 pretty Democratic Democrats in the Senate as well. So what can we deduce from the make up of the senate. First of all, there are several states with liberal Republicans in office whose seats are going to transition to the Democratic party. The other side of the coin is there are several states that have trended conservative that now have liberal Democratic Senators. In a few years it is likely that the Republicans will gain those seats. Not too much into the future the Republicans will still have approximately 55 Senators, but they will be pretty solid Republican Senators. The Democrats will have 45 liberals and they will be pretty solidly Liberal Democrats. There will still be RINOs. But they will be more conservative than today's RINOs.

All of that brings us to filibusters in general. When both parties had both liberals and conservatives one found people crossing the isle on controversial issues. It was very hard to make filibuster work. There were always enough liberal Republicans to cross the line to make Republican filibusters fail and vice versa. About the only time they worked was on civil rights legislation when the Democrats were in the majority. Enough Democrats left the reservation so that civil rights legislation always failed. But by 1964 that no longer worked and with Republican help Civil Rights legislation passed.

In a few years both parties will be totally aligned along philosophical lines. That is a new and different situation. Then even with 55 solid Republican votes it may be hard to get things done.. That will last until the Democratic Senators realize that nothing will happen for them unless they play ball with the Republicans. Republicans will realize that results are the key to reelection, and if they get results the voters won't care if the stomped on a few Democrats to get them. The nuclear option will become a conventional weapon.

It will be the mirror image of the 50's 60s, and 70s. Democrats to get things for their state will trade votes on particular issues for things in their state. And if the Democrats filibuster, Republicans will change the rules.. for just one bill at a time. Understand that when realignment is complete, there will be few states in which the two senators will be from different parties. The leadership will start to play hardball. It will be a much different situation.

Today West Virginia is trending to a conservative state. Yet its two senators are Democrats. That will change and Republicans as conservative as our president will represent WV in the Senate. On the other hand it is quite likely that in the future Snowe and Chaffee's seats will be held by Democrats.

The one clear fact is the nation as a whole is trending conservative, and the states are realigning from one party to the other. States that were once Democratic states are becoming Republican. yes some Republican states are becoming Democratic.. But it is a much smaller number. The good news is the USAt is moving in the conservative direction The bad news is it is not their yet.

If you ask for proof, examine the tactics used by the Democrats to keep the Republicans from getting judges confirmed and legislation passed. They know that in close states obstructionism is a tactic that can cost them seats. Daschle is a perfect but not the only example. Democrats know is going to happen anyway. They expect to lose seats in Republican states. They expect to gain seats in liberal states. They know that the total number of Republican seats will not change any more than the total number of Democratic seats will change. They will just become more partisan. That is bad news for the Donkey.

Right now Frist and company are playing with a less than a solid hand. Frist has lots of RINOs on his team. But he knows it is a lot better to be in the majority with a lot of RINOs than it is to be in the Minority with 45 solid liberals on your team.

I urge us all to think about what is going to take place in the coming years. The most the Democrats can hope for is to keep the Republicans from doing as they wish. And no matter what happens now in a few years the Republicans will change the rules in the senate. The question is not IF but WHEN. There was a time when people crossed the isle both ways. It was possible to get 60 votes for cloture. Those days are pretty much gone and may not be back for a while.

But don't be discouraged by the Republicans current difficulty in garnering 51 solid votes. It is only a matter of time until they can do better than 51 votes on any issue. Both sides know it.

Please consider one thing. The RINOs in the senate are not stupid. They know what the future holds. They know it is a lot better to be in the majority than it is to be in the minority. Think of it in realistic terms. One more Democrat or independent like Jeffords jumping ship does nothing for the Democrats. They can't give away the farm for one more seat. So the first RINO to cross the isle will not get much in return. But as each RINO crossed the isle the offers from both sides would get higher. So we have a situation where none of the RINOs want to be first second, third or fourth. They want to be 5th or 6th . None of them are likely to go first. On the other hand if they stay and do damage to the Republicans they can expect to get treated like the red headed step child and there is nothing their Democratic friends can do for them..

So can anything be done Now? I got to thinking about George Voinovich. The media and the Democrats have been treating Georgie pretty nicely. No one mentions his trips to his native land and who pays for them. I don't know. but I have heard that Voinovich has been involved with some pretty shady deals. There were accusations that his brother was a bad boy. If I were Rush, Hannity or Glenn Beck, I would put a real quality investigative reporter on Voinovich. I would let Delay style invective rule the day by both airing my findings and feeding what I found to the MSM. I would bet they could not resist taking up the cry for his Voinovichy scalp. He would need to see pictures of the cell next to James Traficant for starters. To get talk radio off his neck, he might just decide to hide in the Middle of the Republican pack.

It is not possible for a Frist to threaten a RINO and shape him up. If Frist took away all of a RINOs perks he can get some perks from Democrats for crossing the Isle. But an effective right wing media doing the research and letting the MSM lead the attack, could make retreating into the center of the Republican pack look like a very nice place for a Voinovich and his fellow RINOs to be.

It would establish the talk show host that did it as a major power in national affairs. It could also cause about 7 other RINOs to return to the protection of the herd.