Ray Malone's Commentary

We are near the end of a major realignment unlike any in our history. A hundred years ago there were Liberal Republicans and Conservative Republicans. The same was true of Democrats. Both parties have a history of being a mixture of left and right. In the Senate it was not at all uncommon for Senators to cross party lines. The 1964 civil rights act is a case in point. A much greater percentage of Republicans voted for that bill than Democrats. Democrats tried to filibuster the bill. Every governor and mayor who stood in school house door screaming Segregation today and tomorrow and forever was a Democrat.

In 1964 Barry Goldwater was openly and heavily opposed by the Rockefeller Republicans. There were liberals in the Republican party 50 years ago. There are some today.

Starting in the sixties and continuing until today, conservatives have been moving to the Republican party and Liberals have been moving to the Democratic party. New England was once the home of Liberal Republicans. It is now the home of Liberal Democrats. The South was once the home of Conservative Democrats. It is now the home of Conservative Republicans.

The realignment in the senate is complete for the South. Senator Zell miller was the last of the Conservative Democrats. But realignment is not finished in the North... Especially in New England. If we do not find it strange that Zell Miller crossed party lines, why should we find it strange when Liberal Republican's Snowe, and Chaffee do the same thing. Not all liberals have moved to the Democratic party. That is good for Conservatives. It is better than the alternative.

There is one more problem. There are states that have transitioned from Liberal to Conservative over the last 40 years. But in many cases they still have liberal senators. So we have a situation where there are 43 Liberal Democrat Senators and 45 Conservative Republican Senators and about 10 RINO Republican Senators and a couple of almost DINO Democrats.

Add it all together and it says the level of 55 Republicans to 45 Democrats will remain. But in states like West Virginia which is transitioning Conservative, there are still two Liberal Democratic Senators. That will change. States like Maine will have two liberal Democratic senators. When the transition is complete there will be about 52 Conservative Republicans and 42 liberal Democrats. Add to that about 6 Senators of the RINO and/or DINO bent. and you have the picture of how I see the future. I think the future gets better for Republicans.

Ohio is a swing state. It was the swingingest State in the Union in 2004. It determined who got to be president. In swing states the best we can hope for is two RINOs. More often than not such states will have one DINO and one RINO. Sometimes it may have two DINOs. What is more important than trying to elect a conservative in RINO DINO Ohio, is making sure that RINOs like Lindsay Graham do not get elected in Conservative States like South Carolina.

Republicans need to elect true conservatives in every state where they can elect true conservatives. We must elect RINOs in every state where we can ONLY elect RINOs. An elected RINO is always preferable to a defeated Conservative. If Republicans do that they can have a good grip on the Senate. But as long as the true mix is 45-45-10 with the 10 being RINOS, Republicans will likely have problems in the Senate.

There is one other factor. The Senate is small. It is a group of 100 people. Everybody knows everybody. Friendships develop and people with opposite views sometimes cooperate. That is the senate. We need a Majority leader who can build friendships and build bridges to the other side. We need a majority leader who builds up good will with all senators so he can call in those chits when the going gets rough. WE need a majority leader who can lead his own troops.

But as it stands we do not have Senate Majority leader who can work across party lines. We have a Senate Majority leader who can not control his troops.. If Frist had just a couple e of Democrats who owed him big favors the 7 Republicans would not have made a move to stop the nuclear option.. If the nuclear option could have have passed 50 to 50 with a couple of Democrats and Cheney making it 51, the vote would have been 57 to 43 for the nuclear option. The fact that Lott, McCain and the rest could play games, is a reflection on Frist's leadership.

It used to be, in the Days of LBJ, that senate rules gave huge power to the majority leader and committee chairmen. But once the Solid Democratic South stopped being the Solid Democratic South, the Senate changed the rules so committee chairmen had far less power. And after the way LBJ abused the majority leaders power, they weakened the power of the majority leader.

So the number of sticks still available to a Majority leader are few. But there are still carrots. The biggest carrot is friendship. The object of majority leader is to conduct himself in such a way that members have a hard time telling him NO. That means doing favors for members.. often members of both parties. A majority leader that can do that earns loyalty and gets things done.

Or as Grandpa used to say, "Politicians that owe ya don't NO ya."