Ray Malone's Commentary

I was very surprised in the 2000 campaign when with just few weeks left Rove announced a change in the Bush campaign. They were going to actively pursue California. . And sure enough the next weekend found the Bush Campaign in California making stop after stop all over the state.

There was the usual media surprise because the media polls showed Gore with a double digit lead in California. But Rove allowed as how the Bush internal polls showed him doing better than that.

What brings this to mind? Today the McCain campaign announced it was opening offices all over the state of California. But the media polls, most nearing a month, old show Obama with anywhere from a 9 to 34 point lead. But could things have changed since then?

But what if they have not, why would McCain pretend that California is in play? The reason Bush did was to convince the Gore campaign that they needed to make sure they held on to California by spending money there. Money they could have spent in Florida. Because California was not in play. But Gore could not afford to call Bush's bluff. Is this a McCain bluff. Maybe .. then maybe not. Obama needs to get an internal poll going in California and make sure it is his state and that it is not close enough for McCain to pull out a close victory.

This could be McCain's rope a dope to cause Obama to spend valuable resources to hold a state he will not lose? But that could only work if Obama was short of money. If Obama can not afford the staff and money to play it big in say Michigan and California at the same time he goes active in California.

Bush used it as a way to win Florida. Perhaps McCain is trying to win either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both.

But there is another factor. Some polls in California had Obama with a 9 point lead over Hillary and Hillary won California by 9 points. So could it be that the polls are wrong?

But this only becomes a factor in the strategy of the campaign if Obama does not have the money to do it all We know that Obama canceled major spot buys in Virginia, North Carolina Georgia, Florida, South Dakota, and Montana. Candidates rolling in the money Obama thought he was going to roll in, do not need to cancel any commercial buys. When spots are not working they just do new spots that may work. And they take additional money to add spot buys in the states where they need them. But canceling a buy almost always signals they need money elsewhere, and don't have it.

But what about Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That is where Obama moved his southern strategy money. So what do the internal polls say about these three states. Is it possible that Obama is not doing all that well in Ohio, PA and Michigan. If he was why would he need to spend more money?

The latest media polls show McCain opening up a few point lead. But I would bet you a fair bundle that the basic numbers have not changed. It is the turn out percentages that have been changed by the pollsters. They were giving McCain very low turn out numbers for his base. The Republican base was not all that enthusiastic for McCain. On the other hand Obama supporters were very enthusiastic. And the pollsters count enthusiasm as a way to measure a candidates turn out.

But nearly every unenthusiastic McCain supporter I have found is scared to death of President Obama. I think they have always been motivated to come out to vote for McCain but more importantly come out to vote against Obama.

McCain has never had great enthusiasm among the base. However, Palin has changed that fact and the McCain turn out numbers may have been increased by the pollsters.

But in my view they always coming out to vote for McCain and against Obama. I have always felt that Obama's base was very enthusiastic... but I have always questioned their dedication to come out to vote. They are still, much like New Hampshire voters where an Obama win over Hillary was considered certain until they actually counted the votes. The unenthusiastic Hillary supporters came out in greater numbers than the very enthusiastic Obama supporters.

The rumor on the political street is that McCain with his 84 million and the RNC with its 250 million devoted to McCain may have more money than Obama. I have no proof but there is the circumstantial evidence of Obama cutting previously purchased spot buys and McCain taking up California. Those are pretty good indicators

But how could that be!!!! How could McCain end up with more money to spend than Obama.. May I be so bold as to ask who wrote the McCain Feingold campaign finance bill? That would not be John McCain would it? And that bill would not contain... a loop whole or thirty seven of which McCain is taking advantage??? No! WAY!!!

In any event here in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania it appears that McCain is out spending Obama on TV. McCain has lots of offices, and a very professional staff as does Obama.. But Obama pulled out, at least for the time being, of 6 states, while McCain has not pulled out of any state and is in the process of adding states while his media poll numbers climb.

Obama is no longer the candidate who only needs to accept victory. He is the candidate who must turn things around and find a way to put himself back in the lead.

Each day that goers by, we see evidence that the old pro with his old staff has out thought and out moved the more glamorous Obama/ Biden.

I find it interesting that McCain-Palin out drew Obama- Biden in TV audience. Can you imagine all the pre-written stories telling us how much bigger Obama-Biden was on TV than McCain-Palin? Talk about wasted disk drive space!!!

This election is not anything like what the media expected it to be. It is,however, exactly like many professional Democrats expected it to be. And many of them are just waiting to take control of the party and move it back toward the center for 2012.

Of course McCain has proved one other truth. If the base expects a candidate to be RINO and he then does a very conservative thing,... they are at first incredulous .. followed by ecstatic in their support.

I think McCain turned the standard paradigm on its ear. They used to say run to the base for the primary and then run to the center for the general election. It appears to me that McCain won the nomination with the support of the center and has that vote pretty much tied up. Now he is running to the right.

That could make it hard times for Obama as we go into the final weeks.