Ray Malone's Commentary

Their are really only three important categories of voters. The far left (Naderites) and the far right (Libertarians) are not a factor. Third party candidates have no chance to win and so what they tend to do and say is unimportant in this and most elections.

The three important categories are Republican voters, Democrat voters and Independent voters. Republican voters are those who always vote for Republicans and Democrat Voters are those who always vote for Democrats. What is important for both parties is the turnout numbers for these two groups. George Bush won in 2004 in large measure because the turn out of Republican voters was greater than the turn out of Democrats. The actual 2004 margin of victory was the Evangelical Democrats in Ohio that voted for Bush based on abortion and the 2nd amendment.

But this year is nothing like 2004. This is a year like most presidential years when the Independent voters will pick our president. As I have posted so many times independent voters tend to have two criteria... they tend to vote for the most likable candidate and the candidate who they believe will do the most for them. That is not the same as doing the most for poor people, or the nation as a whole, or even working class people.. They ask what will each of the candidates do FOR ME. Independents are not ideological. They are about their own self interest.

So what does that say about McCain-Palin Vs Obama-Biden. Let me say independent voters and 99 percent of those in the media have nothing in common. Those in the media are ideologues. They got into the media because they are government fans. And the candidate that appeals to them rarely appeals to the Independent voter. So while the MSM could fall in love with Obama, the independent voters don't much care for him. With his chin raised, and his eyes looking down his nose, the MSM sees a liberal who will implement the liberal agenda come hell or high water. The independent voter sees a man in love with his ideology and himself who does not give a rats rump about them.

McCain received so little publicity outside the primary states he needed to tie down the nomination, that voters knew little about him. Mostly what the MSM told them. But McCain has one big advantage. He is indeed very smart. He has an I.Q. of 133. An I.Q. of 100 is normal and 140 is a genius. He has the capacity to think and plan. McCain comes across as a nice guy who loves his country, and as a man who sees serving his nation and its people as his role in life. He is not about John McCain. He is about serving his country. You may not agree with his views, but you know he has this nations good at heart.

It seems obvious that much of what McCain has done in the last 3 weeks has been planned and in the works for a long time. It is an effective tactic to prove Obama is a liar. It is a planned series of attacks on Obama modified by what Obama says and does. Obviously McCain has no way of knowing that Obama was going to do the Lipstick remark. But he did know that Obama cannot resist responding to attacks with counter attacks.

There is the belief that John Kerry lost because he did not respond to the Swift Boat attacks and that they think cost him the presidency. But it was not the attacks or Kerry's response that cost Kerry the presidency. It was the fact that enough of the public believed those attacks to help Bush win. But what made the Swift Boat Attacks believable was they contained the element of truth and similar untrue attacks on Bush did not work. The reason is the people believed in Bush and did not believe in Kerry. They liked Bush they did not like Kerry.

So for three weeks McCain has used words Obama has said to show the real Obama. The Lipstick ploy is just the most recent. What does that do? It keeps Obama on the defensive. He responds with counter attacks and counter counter attacks. How does Obama respond? With anger, denial and statements no one believes.. That's how he responds. It makes the question is Obama fit to lead the question and Obama's claim to be a uniter a lie.

Let me give you my response to the lipstick charge had I been advising Obama. I would have had Obama say:

My lipstick remark is really a sort of complement to Ms. Palin's effectiveness as a speaker. I heard her use it in her acceptance speech and I, for one, thought it was very appealing and effective. I had not heard of Lipstick and Pit Bulls line before but I have heard of Lipstick on a Pig. and I used it to describe how Senator McCain is portraying his domestic and foreign policy. I used it to describe the McCain policies in a graphic way. Perhaps, the analogy came to mind because Sarah used the Lipstick- Pit Bull thing to describe herself. But to those I offended let me offer my apology. I apologize to all I have offended. And In the spirit of reaching across party lines let me offer a compromise solution .. Sarah if you will try be just be a tad less pit bull... I'll try to stop being a pig .... pause ...... you can have the exclusive use of the lipstick"

That would have defused the issue in a heart beat. People would have believed Obama was telling the truth. Not the obvious lies his staffers told the press about his use of the Lipstick on a Pig line. But you see Obama can not ever apologize for anything. If he says something he should regret he can't say he regrets it. A man who must always be right.. who has never admitted a mistake, can be pushed into all sorts of terrible lying positions. What the voters see as obvious lies really hurt a candidate. To paraphrase a Nixonian statement. It is not the lipstick on the pig that takes you down it is the lies to try to explain it, that take you down. That personality trait of Obama is what McCain is using to take Obama down.

So look for McCain to use either current statements or past statements of Obama to attack him. The McCain ads will point out the inconsistency and Obama will deny they are inconsistent. Obama is a very flawed man. He will lie when the truth would work a lot better. He does not understand that independents do not expect any candidate to be perfect. They expect candidates to make mistakes. But they also expect candidates to admit and correct them. They fear, and I do mean fear, a liar.

Take the McCain statement that he needs more training on economics. Obama pounced on that as a major weakness of McCain. But the public does not expect a president to know everything. They find it very refreshing when a candidate will admit he needs training or help on a subject. It also means he is humble and honest. They reason only a very truthful and honest candidate would tell voters he needs to learn more about some subject.

Can anyone imagine Obama admitting he does not know something? Yet unless Obama learns to become a normal likable human being, he is going to be destroyed by John McCain.

Right now Obama has been on the defensive for 3 weeks. And Obama defense has been counter attacks. Until Obama finds a way to defuse the effectiveness of the attacks, McCain will continue to use them.

But there are many defects in the way Obama says things. For example he accuses McCain of making these attacks so that the campaigns will not be able to talk about the issues. That may even be true. But that is not the way to say it. Obama should say, "The economy, housing, inflation, and many other issues need to be discussed. Senator McCain, lets you and I cut out the personal attacks and counter attacks and talk about the issues. Lets talk about the things that matter to the American people"

It is as if Obama is tone deaf. He does not know how to appeal to voters. He is all about himself and his self esteem. That is not the way to get elected president. And until Obama finds an effective way to respond besides denial of his own words, he will continue to be on defense. What Obama needs to do is use humor to defuse McCain. If McCain attacks and Obama responds with humor, then McCain has a problem.

Obama may not be good at humor. That is quite likely. We know that the Irish wit of McCain might be something that Obama may not want to challenge either. But he has to find a way to get on offense.

There are just a couple of things that have to be accomplished to win the Presidency. One has to be a nice guy, that is first foremost, and always interested in serving the individual people of the United States. Until Obama learns it is about the voters and not about him, he will continue to do poorly.