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John Roberts Confirmation
Sept 15, 2005
Watching the first four days of the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee John C. Roberts was a real education. The Democrats stopped being Democrats. There were no pubic hairs on coke bottles, there was no borkathon of John Roberts positions. The Democratic Senators were almost civil. They were certainly civil by Teddy Kennedy and Joe Biden standards. Biden even congratulated Roberts at the end of the third day. And the leftists even pulled their worse TV ads early on. The question is why?
As I pondered how Judge Roberts was treated compared to how Judge Thomas was treated, several possibilities came to mind. Are the Democrats just saving up to go totally ballistic when President Bush's next nominee comes before them? That is what the media is hinting. Why would they do that? If they could bork Roberts they could perhaps get a Souter and a Kennedy in return. Certainly the media would cover for them. I watched as CNN's motley crew make every possible excuse for Biden's repetitive. ridiculous, and mean spirited questions on the third day of hearings. They must believe the media can not protect them.
Some conservatives believe that the Democrats went easy because they know that Roberts is really a Souter in disguise. But that seems very unlikely. Roberts said over and over that what he wrote for the Reagan administration was what an attorney writes for his client. And attorneys are expected to argue the clients case .. not the attorneys own opinions. .But that isn't likely. Reagan was not apt to hire a Souter and keep him on the staff to make the conservative case. It would be like hiring Teddy Kennedy to drive your daughter home from a party. It is not likely to work out well.
That brought to mind something a political science professor taught me many years ago. He said, if you want to know why politicians do what they do, look at the election returns.
A very good case can be made that it was registered Democrats voting for President Bush on the abortion and and gay rights issues that gave President Bush Ohio and his reelection.. I do know that in my home county, President Bush got something like 2,500 registered Democrats to vote for him. If that was typical, there were something like 300 thousand Ohio Democrats that voted for president Bush. If even half of those Democrats had stayed on the reservation, we would be observing the administration of President Kerry. But many of the Bush Democrats I interviewed voted for President Bush solely on the Supreme Court issue. Those issues were abortion and gay rights.
Bush and Rove knew what was happening before the election. It was a big part of the Rove strategy. And after the votes were counted Kerry knew what Rove had wrought.. After election day even Howard Dean knew it. That is why Democrats started talking family values. Kerry knew by the time all the votes were counted that in Ohio perhaps more than a quarter million Democrats voted for President Bush. Democrats have to be wondering how to get those quarter million Democrats back in the fold. And I doubt this only occurred in Ohio. IT is likely a huge Democratic problem. It is not likely the media would tell us about it either.
I think the behavior of Democratic Judiciary Committee Senators is very similar to Bill Clinton's actions 1996. As Clintons reelection was planned, Dick Morris told Clinton the facts of life. Morris said that if Clinton opposed welfare reform, he would get to congratulate President Dole. So what did Clinton do? He adopted Welfare reform and claimed credit for its adoption. Kerry stayed with the Democratic tradition and it cost him the presidency. That fact is not lost on the Democrats. I think pressure was brought to bear on Kennedy, Leahy and Biden to take it easy. They were asked not to make those registered Democrats in key states, into permanent Republicans.
Post election studies have likely convinced Democrats that if they kill a Bush appointee on abortion, and gay rights issues, they will make permanent Republicans out of 10 or 12 million Democrats in key states.. They can't afford to do that. Surely the Democrats know that their positions on abortion and gay rights have made West Virginia and Kentucky Republican Presidential states. Michigan may not be too far behind. I think they see the handwriting on the wall.
REMEMBER when the choice is ideology or power, the Democrats will always do what ever it takes to try to get power.
The media and Democrats have in recent decades made one major mistake. They assume the attacks and tactics that persuade them will persuade moderates. It is a fallacy. I think they are learning.
I am not convinced that the Democrats will go after the next Bush nominee. If the president makes a good choice, it is not likely that the Democrats will attack more than they have attacked Roberts.
Why not? The only realistic answer is such an attack would be counter productive to their real goal..
There are a number of leaders in the Democratic party who know the real question before them is, "Do I want to prevent Bush from taking the court conservative or do I want a chance to take back the Senate majority?" Why should we be surprised that their choice is to go for their own chance at power by abandoning policy?