Ray Malone's Commentary

One of the most interesting things I have observed over the years is how members of a political party or movement never know when a battle is lost. They quite often continue to fight when the only possible result of the continued battle is the loss of the war.

Anyone who looked at the break down of the election returns in 2004 saw how important two groups of single issue voters were to the Bush win. The fist was the social conservatives. They are often called the Religious Right. Bush had to have their support and a record turn out in order to win. He got them. Secondly Bush needed about 35 percent of the Mexican American vote to win. In previous years Republicans had won from 20 to 30 percent of the Mexican American vote.

That is why Bush on the campaign trail visited areas with large Hispanic populations and when he did, greeted the crowds with a few sentences in Spanish. That is also why the Media always trashed Bush's Texas accented Spanish.. as if lots of Native Texans of Mexican descent did not speak Spanish with a Texas accent.

My point is with all the conservative opposition to illegal Mexican immigration, there is not much of a chance that a Republican can get 35 percent of the Mexican American vote in 2008. It is likely that Hillary will get 75 or 80 percent of the Mexican American vote.

Does that mean a Hillary Presidency? For sure the Republicans will have to find a way to replace those 2 or 3 million lost Mexican votes. And if the Republican nominee is Rudy then, they will have to find a way to replace the 3.5 million social conservative voters that will sit on their hands for a pro abortion, pro gay rights, pro gun control Republican candidate.

But it will take 4 or 5 million votes to replace the lost Mexican votes. You see if the Social conservatives don't vote at all, then they don't add to Hillary's total. They just subtract from the Republican vote. Thus if Hillary would have had 60 million votes to the Republicans 60 million votes, except for the loss of the social conservatives, then the vote count would be 60 million Hillary to 56.5 million Republican. But if the Republican loses 2 million Mexican voters the count goes to 62 million Hillary to 58 million Republican. If the Republican nominee is Rudy then the count goes to 62 million for Hillary to Rudy's 54.5 million. That my friends is a Hillary 53 to 47 win. There is no way to add 6 million new Rudy voters to the list of Republican voters.

In fact the Republican candidate will need all of Bush's voters plus add few more to be able to win. That is not likely to happen in 2008. People keep pointing out the Hillary negatives. but those with the negative opinions of Hillary were never going to vote for any Democrat anyway. While some of those with negative views of the current Republican Candidates were going to vote for the Republican candidate before the party candidates changed the parties position on immigration and social issues.

What will happen to the amnesty bill if Hillary becomes president and the Democrats hold the house and the senate? That would bring on a bill that would make the Bush bill look very good in hind site. When the choice is a bad bill or worse, many in the Republican party would chose the worst.

My point is Republicans must have at least 35 percent of the Mexican American votes to win in 2008. They are very unlikely to get it. There is a school of thought that it was the loss of the Mexican American vote in 2006 that gave the Democrats control of the House and Senate. Stemming that loss might very well have allowed the Republicans to hold the Senate.

So what have been and will be the results of the illegal immigration fight? Not much to show for the opponents of illegal immigration. President Bush proposed a bill that the opponents didn't like and they got it killed. So the old law stays in force. You know the bill that allowed 12 million or so illegal immigrants to come to the USA since the late 1980s..And the President has made a minor effort to enforce the old law against employers.

So what will happen if the Mexican Americans give Hillary and the Democrats a victory in 2008. Well for starters the Mexicans will get the amnesty bill of their dreams and it may be a generation before the Republicans can win the House Senate and or the Presidency again. Republicans will have to start breeding heavily.. They will need over 7 million new voters.

My point is, as Bush and Rove clearly figured out, there was no way to win the anti illegal immigration fight. The anti-illegal immigration folks must have decided to lose both the battle and the war. Either that or they could not figure out the simple truth, they could not win the battle over illegal immigration. They will soon enough learn they have fixed it so they can NOT WIN the war.

I am reminded of the Civil Rights act of 1964 that gave Blacks the right to vote. Barry Goldwater voted against it. LBJ made that a huge issue of the anti black vote in the 1964 campaign. It cost the Republicans, the party of Lincoln, black voter support that lasts until today. Could Barry Goldwater have prevented the Civil Rights act of 1964 from passing? Obviously NO. Why then did he fight a battle he could not win. It is crazy. The first rule taught in political science classes is never ever fight a political battle that cannot be won. The costs are always far worse than the public loss of the battle. ALWAYS!!!

Barry Goldwater was famous for the line, "I would rather be right than President." What he really meant was he would rather keep fighting a lost battle than win the war."

Back in 1968 at the end of his presidency Lyndon Johnson was asked how he managed to get so much of the liberal agenda passed when his hero Franklin Delano Roosevelt had failed in his effort to pass the same agenda. Lyndon simply replied, "I could not have done it with out the help of Barry Goldwater." What LBJ meant was without the totally unsuccessful ands stupid opposition of Barry he could not have gotten his agenda passed.

I am reminded of the lyrics to the Kenny Rodgers song.. "You gotta know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em.. Know when to walk away and know when to run."

It seems to me that much of the right hasn't a clue about when to fold 'em. and only knows how to trip and fall before crawling away.