Ray Malone's Commentary

It is sometimes helpful to think of the political spectrum as a clock face. At the bottom of the clock are the centrists at about 6 on the political dial. If we consider the right being from about 1 to 4:30 on the clock face then the moderates make their home from 4:30 to 7:30 and the left makes their home from 7:30 to 11.

In the general election for president it is almost always the moderates who pick the winner. There are about 17 states that have a lot more Democrats than Republicans. And there are about 17 states that have a lot more Republicans than Democrats. That leaves the so called battleground states. They have about an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. As a result the winner of those states is almost always determined by moderate voters. The moderates are often referred to as swing voters because they sometimes vote for the Democratic candidate and sometimes for the Republican.

You would think that those who almost always pick our president would get lots of attention. They don't. In fact moderates make very little noise. One reason is they are not ideological. They don't really have a political philosophy. If you ask them they will most often tell you they vote for the man and not the party. Some moderates vote for the most likable candidate, others vote for the candidate they think will do the most for them and least to them. It is about the candidate. it is not about the party.

The swing voters rarely pay much attention before the late summer of the election year. There was an exception in 2004. That year moderates made up their minds early in the spring of 2004, and they split nearly evenly. Half were for Bush and half were for Kerry. That meant that the party that did the best job of getting its base out would win. But 2004 was a rarity. It was the exception that proves the rule.

But what about what we hear in every election. Will the base come out to support its party? Bases always come out to vote. They just do. Then what is the media talking about?

They are talking about those on the far left and far right. Those on the far left exist from 11PM to midnight on the clock dial. Those on the far right exist from midnight to 1Am on the clock dial. What about them? I want to make the case that they are not worth a moments time or effort. No matter what they tell you they are not.

First let me say that I use a clock dial because the far left and the far right are very similar in the tactics and views they hold about the rest of the political spectrum.

It came as a shock to many that the far left voted for Nader in the 2000 election rather than Gore . Can you imagine how green you have to be for Al Gore to not be Green enough for the Green party voters?

The Green party voters voted for Nader to teach the Democrats a lesson. In the future they had best nominate someone they felt was green enough. Can you imagine a voter who was convinced that Al, Earth in the Balance, Gore was not green enough to get his vote?

There are about 3 percent on the Left that will never find a Democrat they can support. There are about 3 percent on the Right that will never find a Republican they can support.

Yet every election cycle they are out their screaming at the party on their side of the clock that they had better nominate someone they can support or they are going to teach the party a lesson.

In 2000 the far left told the Democrats that there was no difference between Gore and Bush. They were not going to vote for Gore because there was no difference between them. But that is not unusual. The far right did not see any difference between Bush and Gore.

What happened to the far right in 2000. Their was no media savvy far right candidate. When there is no third party right wing candidate they do not vote. They stay home and pout.

In 2004 many in the media thought that the far left would be in the Kerry fold. After all there was no far left party candidate to garner their votes. But what happened? Another very close race that Bush won. That 3 percent on the left that had voted for Nader 4 years earlier stayed home and pouted that Kerry was just not left enough.

In both 2000 and 2004 the far right stayed home and did not vote.

But yet both the far left and far right are very vocal. They are all over the web. They call all the call in shows to tell everyone who will listen that they will teach the dang party a lesson it will never forget.

The truth is they haven't a clue about how to teach a lesson or garner influence. They always withhold their votes. So no candidate that hopes to win will give them the time of day. Why would any candidate for either party. Those on the fringe never vote for the party's candidate. They vote for a third party candidate or they don't vote.

As we draw closer to the primary season, there will be louder and louder shouts about how the far right and far left are going to do this and that if they parties don't do this and that to please them.

It is interesting to note that the Democrats, this year, are bowing to the far left. Why? Well among other reasons, the far left this year is well funded by a very, very, very, rich man.

The Democratic party has always been made up of three components... the very very rich and the working class and the poor. The great mass of those that vote for Democrats have their hands out. They do not donate to the party. The Democrats need the money of the rich to stay in the game. Their candidates have to pander.

But wining elections is rarely about money. It is about doing smart things that persuade voters. Taking positions and doing things that appeal to moderates. That is what it takes to win.

In the final three weeks of the 2004 campaign Kerry outspent George Bush on TV by a significant margin. . Bush knew that being on TV too much cost votes. Kerry apparently didn't. Kerry had the money so he spent it on TV and it cost him votes in Ohio.

Wining is about organization, and hard work to get out the base, and making publicizing the candidates views in a way that appeals to both the base and moderates.

It is paying zero attention to the fringes of either party.

Neither the right or the left Fringe has never elected a president and they have never defeated one either.

Many, like Hillary. think it is all about raising the most money and pandering to whoever makes the most noise. That is almost always the fringes and they are never there for any major party candidate on election day.

OH you heard what Hillary said didn't you?

"What are they going to do if they catch me? HUH? The most they can do is Hsu me!"