Ray Malone's Commentary

Some of the things the media tells me make no sense. They have recently told us that the Foley scandal has resulted in many Christians who normally vote for Republicans deciding not to vote this year or they will vote for the Democratic candidates.

That seems so strange to me. Christians can not expect the Republican party or any party to be free of sinners. One of the first thing Christians learn is that all are sinners.... all fall short.

It would seem to me that Christians would not vote for a candidate that endorsed sins. How could a Christian vote for a candidate that approved of sin or accept a person who endorsed sinful behavior? Those who accept and promote sinful behavior are Democrats.

But to reject a Republican candidate because of what another Republican did is very un-Christian. Christians vote Republican largely on the abortion issue. And Democrats are for abortion. They would have to reason that millions of dead unborn babies are better than voting for a party that used to have a homosexual office holder that sent sexual emails to young men. That does not compute.

They tell us that the sins of Mark Foley has reduced the turnout of Republicans. They tell us the Democratic base is energized and anxious to vote. They site the war in Iraq and the Foley scandals as the reasons.

But I don't think the war in Iraq is a big issue. If we had the draft and people who did not want to serve in a war were forced to serve in that war there would be a backlash and it would be a big factor. But for most Americans the Iraqi war does not effect their daily lives. And we all know that things that effect our daily lives determine how people vote.

The election returns show that Democratic turn out has attained a gradual and constant growth over the last quarter of a century. In 1984 there were 37.5 million Democratic voters. That grew to 41 million in 1988. It was 44 million in 1992 and 47 million in 1996. It grew to 51 million in 2000. In 2004 it was 59 million.

However Republican turnout varies greatly from election to election. For example the good times and good will of the Reagan administration brought out 54 million voters in 1984. It fell to 48 million in 1988. It fell to just 39 million in 1992 and stayed steady at 39 million in 1996. By 2000 the Republican turn out was over 50 million and in 2004 it was 62 million votes.

The Democratic turn out appears to grow at about the rate the population increases in size. In has a regular and gradual increase over the years. The Republican turn out has not been constant or shown consistent growth.. It was way up in the 80s and way down in the 90s. And has two elections of growth in this century.

It seems obvious that election results are determined by Republican turn out.

This year the media is telling us the results will be determined by the Democratic turn out. They say the Democratic base is energized and determined to vote. They tell us the Republican base is discouraged and unhappy with congress.

But if one looks at the Republican turnout since 2000... since Rove has been running the store the turn out has rapidly increased.

Much of that turnout is based on the Republican ground game. The party has gone from a non existent or ineffective grass roots effort to a state of the art and very effective turn out effort. The improvements in the Republican turnout effort in 2006 are much better than they were in 2004 and 2004 dwarfed the Democrats turn out effort.

So they tell us Democrats are highly motivated and will vote in huge numbers while Republicans are unhappy and motivated to sit on their hands.

Will the Democrats vote in numbers never seen before? Why would they? Historically Democrats always tend to vote. They have increased their numbers in every election for decades. It is the Republicans who fail to vote.

The question is will the Republican voters be motivated enough to stop the Democrats cut and run policy in Iraq, to stop the Democrats efforts to increase taxes, and the Democrats efforts to greatly reduce our national security.

The important fact that one learns by looking at past voting records is things changed in 2000. Clinton was still quite popular.. .as popular as Reagan was in 1988. Gore should have gotten a Clinton third term just a Bush 41 got a Reagan 3rd term. It seems clear that what has changed in the last 6 years from the 12 previous years is the Republican party created a turn out machine.

The Republican machine in 2000 was created by Karl Rove. It was a long way from the advanced and powerful machine of today. But it turned out enough votes to win. W won. It was the new and largely inexperienced turn out machine that did it in 2000.

The Republican turn out machine was much improved in 2002 and the Republicans picked up seats. The turn out machine of the Republicans did it again in 2004.

The question is are the issues the turn out workers are using strong enough to bring the voters out to vote. Is fight them over there rather than over here strong enough to bring out Republican voters. Is the Bush history of cutting taxes and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.6 percent enough to motivate Republican voters. Is the fear of Harry Reid controlling the Senate and Nancy Pelosi controlling the House enough to motivate Republican voters.

It seems to me that the turn out effort currently in full swing will cause a lot of Republicans to vote. The pollsters are expecting a return to the turn outs of the 1990s. That is what they are using to calculate their polls. But this is not the 1990s. The calls and contacts of neighbor contacting neighbor, with messages customized to the person being contacted are much improved over just 2 years ago. And they were good enough 2 years ago to re-elect George Bush and hold the House and Senate.

The Democrats are dependent upon paid workers who are not very motivated. The Republicans depend on a huge number of volunteers who are very motivated to get every Republican voter to the polls. And they are trained volunteers. They know what they are doing.

It seems to me that the Democratic party that cheers a Lamont in Connecticut would cause great fear among Republican voters and the more the media says the Democrats are going to win the more Republicans will be motivated to vote.

Yet even in the most liberal state in the nation the Democratic line of Lamont is not selling. It is the pro Iraq war Joe Liebernan who is in the lead.

There is one other factor in the advertising. It seems to me the Rove strategy is to run negative ads that turn the swing voters off. The Democrats are replying in kind. That almost certainly will reduce the swing voter turn out. If the moderate turnout is reduced the results then will be determined by the parties bases.

In a majority of congressional districts the Republicans outnumber the Democrats by several percentage points. If the center does not vote, and the Republican base does, this will be a very good year for Republicans.

They keep telling us the Republicans are angry and discouraged and are not going to vote. I think the turnout will be small ... But it will be the swing voters who in the last 3 elections voted for Republicans and this year would be in the Democratic corner who are going to say fie on both your houses and not vote.

I think that is the Karl Rove strategy. I think the Republicans are going hold the house and senate. The base is going to turn out in good numbers.. It is the fair weather Republicans, that is swing voters, who are not going to vote. There are a little over 2 weeks left. The Republican turn out that will determine who wins.

The election returns of the last 22 years prove it. The result of this election is in the our hands. We can win it or lose it. It is up to us.